UN projects slow growth recovery for India in 2014-15

Decline in employment opportunities due to slowdown in growth prospects, said the UN report

GN Bureau | February 13, 2014




India’s growth may be in early stages of an upward trend, according to a projection by the UN World Economic Situation Prospects 2014 but it warned that the recovery would be slower than previously expected.

The report mentioned that India will grow at 5.3 percent in 2014, while it projected marginal increase in the growth prospect for the next year. “India is likely to grow at 5.7 percent in 2015,” said 198-page report. The growth acceleration will happen due to good monsoon, upward swing in investment activity, stronger export growth and improved demand for goods from the European Union and the US.

It also said, “…the government is unlikely to meet its target of reducing the deficit to 4.8 percent of GDP in the current fiscal year 2013/14, since growth is below projections and depreciation of the rupee pushes up the subsidy bill.”

The report indicated that South Asian countries faced the slowest pace in annual growth in two decades. “A continuing slowdown in India’s economy, the ongoing crisis in Iran and challenging external conditions resulted in the slowest pace in annual growth for the region in two decades,” said the report.

The slowdown in growth also dampened the employment opportunities in India. The report also pointed towards gender and regional disparities within India’s unemployed population. “The unemployment rate among women is estimated at 7.2 percent, about three percentage points higher than among men,” the report added.

NR Bhanumurthy, professor of National Institute of Public and Finance, Delhi-based think tank pointed that India needs to work on four points to revive growth. He said, “Improve financial access and financial inclusion through sectoral reform. Maintain fiscal discipline and subsidy management. Improve efficiency of public expenditure management and last balance growth and maintain inclusion objectives.”

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