Bad loan clean-up prospects at Indian banks improving: Fitch

Demonetisation has had a net beneficial impact on the sector by triggering a sharp influx of low-cost deposits, says Fitch Ratings

GN Bureau | May 15, 2017


#Bad loan   #Banking   #Reserve Bank of India   #RBI   #NPA  


Recent regulatory actions in India suggest the authorities are making a more concerted push to tackle banks' bad loan problems, says Fitch Ratings.

"We believe that asset resolution will be a dominant theme in the sector over the next few years," it says.

In the short term, this is likely to create provisioning costs that will mean continued pressure on bank profits, and it is possible that further losses will push some weaker banks closer to breaching minimum capital requirements, unless they receive pre-emptive capital injections. However, the increased powers given to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to clean up asset quality, and to intervene in banks at an earlier stage when risks build, represents an important positive step toward ensuring a healthy banking system in the future.

The government's recent step to enhance the RBI's powers appears to be a signal to the regulator to assume a more interventionist approach to directly tackle banks' slow progress on bad loan resolution. RBI direction that pushes banks into initiating insolvency processes against borrowers could help to break a deadlock caused by concerns among bank officials that decisions on troubled borrowers will attract investigation by anti-corruption agencies.

Regulation to speed up resolution is the logical next step to follow the asset-quality review and other measures that increased recognition of bad loans over the last two years. This was important as there has been little evident progress on bad-loan resolution. We believe this natural progression reflects stronger intent and willingness from the authorities to address the problem. There will be significant implementation challenges, but asset resolution is likely to strengthen over the next few years, says a communiqué from Fitch Ratings.

The resolution of non-performing loans is likely to require significant haircuts if the re-priced loans are to attract attention from private investors and asset-reconstruction companies. State banks, which hold the bulk of stressed assets, are likely to report low returns on assets for FY17 and any material recovery is likely to be delayed as resolution crystallises losses and forces a higher level of provisioning.

Further losses at some of the weakest small- to medium-sized state banks could pressure them to shrink, or to eventually exit the system by entering into forced mergers. We expect the authorities to manage this in a way that is least disruptive for the financial system, but the process will entail risks for investors of capital securities, at least in the case of weakest banks. We believe it has become more likely that the number of state banks will fall in the medium term.

The large state banks will also face higher provisioning costs and we expect them to eventually receive more capital from the government than has already been budgeted. However, very weak loan growth could mean that banks will require less new capital by FYE19 than we had previously estimated. Bank loan growth reached a multi-decade low of around 5 percent in FY17, and looks set to remain low for the next one to two years.

Fitch says that demonetisation has had a net beneficial impact on the sector by triggering a sharp influx of low-cost deposits, and there are signs that banks are retaining a higher proportion of these deposits than they had initially predicted. The resulting decline in funding costs may not be enough to counter the pressures of income loss and weak growth, but should allow banks some more room to absorb higher provisions and lessen the impact on their capital.
 

Comments

 

Other News

Amitav Ghosh’s new work: Connections between the word and the world

Wild Fictions: Essays By Amitav Ghosh HarperCollins, 496 pages, Rs 799.00 Amitav Ghosh, one of a handful of Ind

How markets can help (and also hinder) fight against pollution

In the annals of environmental policy, few ideas have been as transformative as the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Born from the minds of economists in the late 1960s, this market-based approach to pollution control has evolved from a theoretical concept to a global tool in the fight against climate chang

Will Bihar complement the resolution of Viksit Bharat 2047?

As India completes its diamond jubilee as a republic, I am reminded of a statement by Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, delivered during an address to the Bihar Chamber of Commerce in Patna on March 28, 2006. He said, “I have visited Bihar numerous times, and it has always been a source of happiness for me to

All you wanted to know about Budget: Key Highlights

Here are the key highlights of the proposal of the Union Budget presented in parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Satuday: NO INCOME TAX ON AVERAGE MONTHLY INCOME OF UPTO RS 1 LAKH; TO BOOST MIDDLE CLASS HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS & CONSUMPTION BENEFITTING

Four engines of development: Agriculture, MSME, investment & exports

Union minister of finance and corporate affairs Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2025-26 in Parliament on Saturday. Here is the summary of her budget speech, Part A: Quoting Telugu poet and playwright Shri Gurajada Appa Rao’s famous saying, ‘A country is not just its

No income tax on annual income up to Rs. 12 lakh

Reaffirming the government’s commitment to the philosophy of “trust first, scrutinize later”, the Union Budget 2025-26 has reposed faith in the middle class and continued the trend of giving relief in tax burden to the common taxpayer. Presenting the Budget in the Parliament on Saturday,

Visionary Talk: Amitabh Gupta, Pune Police Commissioner with Kailashnath Adhikari, MD, Governance Now



Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter