In accepting the recommendations of the Planning Commission on the Food Security Bill, the National Advisory Council (NAC) has acknowledged what the government has been saying all along, that food entitlements cannot stretch beyond the food supply. Thus, the food security coat must be cut according to the available cloth.

At this point, agriculture cannot sustain universalised food security and hence, a big chunk of the population must be left outside its purview. In its discussion paper put before the NAC, the Planning Commission had pointed out that cereal (wheat and rice) procurement averaged 55 million tonnes in the last three years (against 40 million tonnes earlier) and hence, entitlements under the Food Security Act (FSA) should not exceed 50 million tonnes per year.

The requirement of BPL households, assumed to number 8.07 crore, would be around 40 million tonnes of grain at 35 kg per household. This would leave only 10 million tonnes for welfare schemes and above poverty line (APL) households. At present, APL families lift 16 million tonnes of food grains every year.

It was therefore suggested that issue price of food grains to APL cardholders be raised to at least 75 percent of the minimum support price (MSP), in order to discourage them from using their cards. It would also trim the spiraling food subsidy bill. This suggestion has been accepted by the NAC.

While this is a practical move, it would effectively leave many households which are teetering on the edge of poverty, out of the food security umbrella. Interestingly, the Planning Commission talks of “increasing” the number of BPL households from 7.41 crore to 8.07 crore. But the number of BPL ration cards currently existing, according to the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, is 10.98 crore!

In its note to the Ministry of Food on March 18 this year, the Ministry of Finance had observed that “Whatever we do, we should not reduce the coverage of BPL families to below 10.8 crore.” At present, the centre only delivers food grains sufficient for 6.52 crore families.

The other major climbdown by the NAC has been on the issue of nutritional security. It has accepted a calorie-based approach to food security, by leaving pulses, coarse grains and oilseeds out of the legal entitlement. This means that rampant malnutrition due to protein and nutrient deficiency will not be addressed. In South India, for example, where cheap rice makes up the calorie requirement, children suffer from mild to moderate malnutrition due to lack of pulses, coarse grains and vegetables.

Supply constraints are the main reason for this. And it does not appear that this issue can be addressed anytime in the near future, although the NAC has promised that it will be. The only alternative would be to increase imports of these commodities. Basing food security on food imports is not a comfortable solution.

Production of pulses, going by official estimates, is expected to increase from around 14.86 million tonnes last year to around 15.73 million tonnes this year. But demand is expected to rise from 18 million tonnes to almost 20 million tonnes, resulting in a supply gap of 4.18 million tonnes. This, despite heavy subsidies to selected districts for increasing production of pulses.

Likewise, oilseeds are likely to fall short of demand by a million tonnes, about half the required amount, despite strong efforts at upping production. Coarse grains production, with the exception of maize, has been static or shrinking – despite the fact that the nutritional profile of these grains is far superior to either wheat or rice. A shortfall in milk, meat and vegetables is also expected with food habits changing rapidly.

If universalised food security is to become fact, the centre needs to rejig the entire system of agriculture (as well as the delivery mechanism). Ideally, the agricultural system should be structured to ensure food security. Instead, food security is being structured in accordance with the agricultural system.