Why economy is not going to be BJP’s poll plank in 2019

The growth rate has fallen and is not likely to move towards promised 10 percent

GN Bureau | June 2, 2017


#growth   #Arun Jaitley   #Narendra Modi   #Economy   #GDP  


A gasping economy means bad politics for the Bharatiya Janata Party that is hoping to recreate the 2014 magic when it won the parliamentary election with a brute majority.

Demonetisation has dented the economy and the latest data is quite grim. India is no longer the world’s fastest growing economy, a fact that BJP leaders had been going to town about. The new figures are bound to take the wind out of their sails.
 
In the third year of the Narendra Modi government, the economy is now down to 7.1 percent, with the Q4 post-demonetisation figure a disheartening 6.1 percent. Three years of higher spending by the government has not yielded the desired result.
 
In defence, finance minister Arun Jaitley on Thursday said demonetisation was not the reason behind the shocking fall in the growth rate. He even said signs of slowdown were visible even before the November 8 move, though he did not elaborate.
 
Things were frankly quite better during the of the UPA tenure, when economist-turned-politician Manmohan Singh was at the helm of affairs.
 
“Average GDP growth rate during the period of UPA government (2004-05 to 2013-14) has been 7.7 percent despite two global slowdown in this period,” said the report card titled ‘10 Years of Progress and Growth’ which in January 2014 highlighted the achievements of the government led by Singh.
 
Months later, the UPA lost the elections and the BJP-led NDA came to power.
 
The GDP growth rate at constant prices (i.e., at the price level of the base year 2004-05) has been fluctuating during the period 2001-02 to 2013-14. The fluctuations range from 3.84% in the year 2002-03 to 9.57% in 2006-07.
 
The GDP growth rate decreased from 5.81% in 2001-02 to 3.84% in 2002-03. Thereafter, GDP growth rate increased and reached a high growth trajectory of 9% plus growth. India experienced three consecutive years of GDP growth rate in excess of 9% viz. 9.48% in 2005-06, 9.57% in 2006-07 and 9.32% in 2007-08, said community.data.gov.in.

 
India's GDP growth (annual %) by World Bank
 




The GDP growth rate declined to 6.72% in 2008-09 largely due to global financial meltdown following the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers of the US in September 2008. The growth rate improved to 8.59% in 2009-10 and 8.91% in 2010-11 due to high capital inflows attributed to the massive Quantitative Easing (QE) undertaken by the US to combat economic slowdown of global level.
 
The GDP growth rate slumped to 6.69% in 2011-12, 4.47% in 2012-13 and 4.74% in 2013-14 (P). This was due largely to domestic policy logjam, tax disputes and shaken investor confidence in Indian economy.
 
“GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 32.28 lakh crore, as against Rs 30.42 lakh crore in Q4 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 6.1 percent. GVA (Gross Value Added) at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 28.69 lakhcrore, as against Rs 27.18 lakh crore in Q4 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 5.6 percent,” said the Central Statistics Office
 
It added: “Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 121.90 lakh crore showing a growth rate of 7.1 percent over the year 2015-16 of Rs 113.81 lakh crore.”
 
Last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) too had cut its prediction for growth in India’s GDP by 0.2 percentage point to 7.3% for the year ending March 31, 2016.
 
The latest growth rate of 6.1 percent means that the country is staring at bleak days ahead. It is also an I-told-you-so moment as former PM Manmohan Singh had warned about it following demonetisation.
 
“GDP can decline by 2 percent – and this is an underestimate, not overestimate,” Manmohan Singh had warned in parliament on November 24, 2016. He had described demonetisation as “a monumental management failure” and added: “It is nothing less than organised loot and legalized plunder.”
 
The World Bank’s latest report too must be quite discouraging for the BJP. It noted that despite renewed weakness in private investment and limited lift from external demand, India was poised to continue growing robustly in FY17 until “demonetization” dented growth, albeit moderately, causing immediate cash crunch, and affecting activity in cash reliant sectors. The cash crunch affected activity in cash reliant sectors and GDP growth slowed to 7.0 percent y/y during Q3 FY17, from 7.3 percent during H1 FY17.
 
Capital expenditure by the central government has increased from 2.6 percent of GDP in FY15 to 2.8 percent in FY16 and 3.0 percent in FY17. Reflecting this increase, as well as higher spending by state governments, public investment by the general government in the national accounts has increased from 3.5 percent of GDP in FY15 to 3.9 percent of GDP in FY16, said World Bank’s India Update 2017.
 
 
 
 

 

Comments

 

Other News

A portrait of Dom community opens a world not seen by many

Fire on the Ganges: Life among the Dead in Banaras By Radhika Iyengar 4th Estate / HarperCollins, 348 pages, 599

Revamp BMC Engineering Department for better governance, says think tank

Calling for reforms in the Engineering Department of BMC, Mumbai Vikas Samiti, a not-for-profit organisation has said that less than optimum performance of Engineering Function has added to the woes of citizens and deterioration in the quality of life in the metro. In its recently released r

NGO hails Maharashtra move to amend Insecticide Act

Hailing the Maharashtra government for introducing a bill to amend the Insecticide Act, 1968, Pesticide Action Network (PAN) India has called the amendments ‘very  focussed’ and urged the state to expand their scope to address other challenges. The bill, introduced in the a

‘Garba of Gujarat’, now a Unesco Intangible Cultural Heritage

`Garba of Gujarat` has been inscribed in the Representative List of Intangible Cultural Heritage (ICH) of Humanity by UNESCO, under the provisions of the 2003 Convention for the Safeguarding of Intangible Cultural Heritage during the 18th meeting of the Intergovernmental Committee for the Safeguarding of t

Cyber frauds helpline has helped save Rs 930 crore

Since its inception, Citizen Financial Cyber Fraud Reporting and Management System has witnessed more than 12.77 lakh complaints registered (till November 15, 2023), and has saved more than Rs. 930 crore in more than 3.80 lakh complaints. This was stated by minister of state for home affair

COP28 discusses climate resilient development in Himalayas

Impacts and implications of Climate Change Vulnerability in the Himalayan Region and ways of creating ‘Climate Resilient Development in Indian Himalayan Region by making mountain communities green and resilient were discussed the side event hosted at the India pavilion at the UN Climate Conference CO

Visionary Talk: Amitabh Gupta, Pune Police Commissioner with Kailashnath Adhikari, MD, Governance Now


Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter