Muslims are expected to account for 16 per cent of Indian population--up by a little over one per cent--and Pakistan may surpass Indonesia as the world's most populous Muslim nation in 2030, says a study.

The study also said the community's population worldwide is expected to grow about twice the rate of non-Muslims in the next two decades, according to projections by the study 'The Future of the Global Muslim Population'. The report by The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life was released on January 27.

India is projected to have a Muslim population of about 236 million in 2030; which would be nearly 16 per cent of the projected Indian population in that year. In 2010, there were an estimated 177 million Muslims, which is 14.6 per cent of the total Indian population.

If current trends continue, Muslims will make up for 26.4 per cent of the world's total projected population of 8.3 billion in 2030, up from 23.4 per cent of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9 billion, the report said.

With a projected population of 256 million in 2030, Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population.

The report said world's Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35 per cent in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030.

The Pew projections are based both on past demographic trends and on assumptions about how these trends will play out in future years.
The average annual growth rate of Muslims in the next two decades has been projected to be 1.5 per cent, compared with 0.7 per cent for the non-Muslims.

Pew said several factors account for the faster projected growth among Muslims than non-Muslims worldwide.

"Generally, Muslim populations tend to have higher fertility rates (more children per woman) than non-Muslim populations," it said.

"In addition, a larger share of the Muslim population is in, or soon will enter, the prime reproductive years (ages 15-29). Also, improved health and economic conditions in Muslim-majority countries have led to greater-than-average declines in infant and child mortality rates, and life expectancy is rising even faster in Muslim-majority countries than in other less-developed countries," the report said.

Read the report