Recession is likely: Prof Arun Kumar on demonetisation

“The slowdown in demand will last for 1-2 years. Money supply will not be restored for another 7-8 months.”

jasleen

Jasleen Kaur | November 22, 2016 | New Delhi


#recession   #Demonetisation   #scrapped currency   #black money  


 Demonetisation is not the way to tackle black economy and it will in fact affect the white economy, believes Arun Kumar, a former professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) who has authored The Black Economy in India (Penguin, 1999). 

Kumar says that the common people are adversely affected. And as demand falls, production falls and this would ultimately result in fall of employment. “This will affect people at large. And the slowdown in demand will last for 1-2 years. Money supply will not be restored for another 7-8 months. Because of this difficulty in circulation, the demand will slow down for the coming 8-10 months. And therefore recession is very likely.” 
 
He also adds that the move is affecting agriculture, industry and services. Black money would be just 1-2 percent of the total money and and most of this money would also be recycled. “So if you are able to demobilise this income, this would hardly create any difference,” he adds. 
 
Kumar says, “Black income is generated through a variety of means – in spurious drugs, in under or over invoicing in trade and business. There are as many ways of generating black income as there are number of sectors in the economy. So even if you are able to demobilise some amount of black money this year, it would be again generated next year.”
 
Instead of going for demonetisation, Kumar adds, that the government could have tracked the hawala houses, ended banking secrecy and formed the Lokpal to bring in accountability. He also says demonetisation of currency will not tackle the black economy problem and will just hurt the white economy and small traders and workers. 
 
“If this could have solved the black economy problem, then it does not matter even if we have to suffer some pain. If it is not solving the problem and causing a lot of problem to people who are innocent or workers who are not generating black income, then why do it?” 
 

Comments

 

Other News

Mumbai Metro: Delay on Tracks

In Mumbai, the ninth most populous and congested city on the planet, high rentals compel citizens to spend five hours on an average travelling to work every day. Mumbai’s Metro Rail System extending towards Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) will not only provide East-West connectivity

Sustainable tourism is responsible tourism

Tourism is a huge part of global culture nowadays and is also one of the biggest sources of revenue across the world. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), in 2019, the tourism industry contributed $8.9 trillion or 10.3% to the global GDP. The industry witnessed a massive lull in 2020 d

Fernandes: A Life as Legacy

The Life and Times of George Fernandes By Rahul Ramagundam Penguin/New India Foundation, 624 pages, Rs 799 Amer

India set to enter 5G era

After years of intense preparation, India is about to take the next step in information and communication technology. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will launch 5G services in India on October 1 and also inaugurate the 6th Edition of India Mobile Congress 2022 to be held till October 4, at Pragati Maidan, Ne

Ram Shravan Manan: A musical venture that leads to self-reflection

There is this popular saying that epics are never told, but always retold. Ramayana is one such epic and needs no introduction. Its plot is grounded in sacrifice and the end brings out hope that the good always wins. But how is a centuries-old tale of the prince of Ayodhya still relevant for today’s

Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana extended for three more months

In pursuance of the pro-people announcement made by the prime minister in 2021 and successful implementation of additional food security under PM Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana, the union cabinet has approved its extension for a further period of three months, from October to December 2022. At a ti

Visionary Talk: Amitabh Gupta, Pune Police Commissioner with Kailashnath Adhikari, MD, Governance Now


Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook    Twitter    Google Plus    Linkedin    Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter