Exit stage

America's planned pullout from Afghanistan hardly seems strategic

debotosh-chatterjee

debotosh chatterjee | July 15, 2011



Barack Obama's decision to withdraw U.S. troops (ISAF- International Security Assistance Force) from Afghanistan by 2014 has created a flutter in many parts of the world and several policy analysts from various parts of the world have voiced strong concerns over this decision. They argue that this decision, if implemented, is unlikely to bring the bloody war in Afghanistan to a tidy end and that this truce can actually turn out to be a saving grace for the 'somewhat-depleted' Taliban. The strife-torn Afghanistan has been seeing a raging war for more than 30 years - the time during which several 'superpowers' came and tested their military prowess in  Afghanistan. But, sadly, promises of peace and democracy never took shape and the country delved further into war,devastation and bloodshed!

But is it correct for most of us to blame Barack Obama for deciding against continuation of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan? It may be not because the US' military budget, at this time of economic strife, is higher than the rest of the world combined, and the ratio between the highest and the average incomes in the US is an unacceptable 120:1. The American masses have themselves shown grave disapproval to this Afghan campaign, hence making it impossible(at least politically) for Obama to let the ISAF stay on in Afghanistan! However, Obama's decision may have far reaching consequences, ones that may not directly concern the U.S. but wreck havoc in disguise in every nook and corner of the world! Lets see how.

Pakistan is going to be one of the first casualties of this U.S. move - the pullout of the U.S. troops from the Pech valley in Kunar 7 in eastern Afghanistan in February 2011 gave us the mini-version of what can happen with the entire country of Afghanistan being freed from ISAF. Various insurgent groups ranging from the Afghani and Pakistani Taliban to al-Qaeda affiliates and the Lashkar-e-Taiba have since then consolidated their safe havens in Kunar. Durand Line has virtually become a menace for Pakistan - cross-border attacks, shelling, terrorist strikes and wanton destruction have become a daily occurrence. The Durand Line has been already ripped apart at places and this Obama decision might make it even more devastating for Pakistan!

Russia is going through a similar dilemma, though its concerns are being also voiced throughout Europe ! Drug Trafficking has been one of the top priorities of Russia when dealing with the Afghan crisis. The U.S. military presence helped reduce the flow of drugs and undesirable exports from Afghanistan into Central Asia and thence to Russia itself. Russia then becomes the gateway for these drugs to go through to Europe! Europe, in its entirety, has strongly resented the U.S. move  primarily because of two main reasons. Firstly, the continent that has been regarded as the cradle of democracy has always been apprehensive of  transport of Islamic extremism from Afghanistan into itself. Policy analysts are of the view that freedom  of movement has resulted in many people(economically or socially hard-up) travelling to Muslim dominated areas like Afghanistan and Pakistan, and returning as radicals of the religion. In that case too, Russia becomes the pass through which transport is facilitated. Secondly, Europe is worried about the expanding boundaries of China within Asia - the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan is going to exacerbate this headache of Europe's!

The Karzai government’s control continuously shrinks in the face of the Taliban, and security deteriorates every year. The Taliban's prowess  has been further magnified after the recent attacks on the hilltop Intercontinental Hotel, that left the peacekeepers and moderators high and dry. This instance of militancy has proved, beyond doubt, the ineptitude of the Afghan government and police in handling terrorism without U.S. aid. The Taliban are far from degraded owing to their safe havens in Pakistan - the country regarded as the "Sick Man of South Asia" and the "epicentre" of global terrorism!

Afghanistan and the rest of the world is not yet realistically prepared to face the withdrawal of ISAF from the strife-torn Afghanistan! There has been very small development in the country in the last decade and even smalerl reduction in the Taliban's power - the organisation , inspite of U.S. intervention, has been constantly clinging onto over 60 percent of Afghanistan and that has been possible because the tribe's jingoistic ideas resonate very well with the way a large chunk of Afghan population thinks and works! The terrorist safe heavens in Pakistan are still intact and once the U.S. withdraws from the country, the insurgents are wholeheartedly going to seek aid from their brethren in Pakistan which , in all likelihood , will be granted from the other side! Thus, the U.S. decision of a "total pull-out" may not be baffling but it really is highly debatable! Henry Kissinger says, "This exit strategy is only about exit and not strategy"- that sums up the entire issue!

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