Is BJP losing Bihar plot?

Various pre-poll surveys project that Nitish Kumar is holding on in the state despite Narnedra Modi’s spirited campaign

GN Bureau | October 9, 2015


#BJP   #Bihar Poll   #pre-poll surveys   #JD-U   #RJD   #surveys  

The contest in Bihar is very close and last minute switch by voters could go either way, for Nitish Kumar or the BJP alliance. Accordingly, the pre-poll surveys go from one end of the spectrum to the other.

While ABP-Nielsen, Lokniti-CSDS-Indian Express and Zee News in their poll surveys showed NDA having the upper hand, the survey conducted by News Nation projected the grand alliance of Nitish as the clear winner. A CNN IBN/IBN7-Axis survey said the grand alliance of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress was expected to win 137 seats. The India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey said the BJP-led NDA could win 119 seats, three short of the magic mark of 122 in the Bihar assembly, and the grand alliance 116.

All the surveys said that development would be the main election issue. Other issues are inflation and "bijli-paani-sadak", ranking second with 13 percent each.

Nitish Kumar is fighting perhaps the biggest battle of his long political career against the toughest of opponents. Nitish Kumar is seen as a performer but his political decisions in the last couple of years may have annoyed many.

The surveys point out that the BJP has also a tough fight on hand, despite prime minister Narendra Modi’s campaign. It may end up with limited success.

Modi may be hugely popular across a cross-section of voters, but his alliance maybe hit due by the absence of a strong match for Nitish. Unlike in Haryana and Jharkhand, the BJP cannot cash in on the incumbents, who were largely discredited.

A smart campaigning techniques borrowed from the BJP by the JD(U) has helped the party to a large extent. The programmes like har ghar dastak may have worked for Nitish and people are more aware of his achievements now.

One of the reasons why NDA may not meet the expectations is because of shifting youth support. According to one survey, while 43 % of young voters were in favour of the BJP during September, this time only 36% support the party.

The BJP knows Bihar won’t be a cakewalk. Almost all its central leaders, including ministers and party president Amit Shah, have been busy in the state for several weeks. Narendra Modi has a number of rallies lined up across the state.

Caste equations play a crucial role in Bihar politics and the opinion poll has once again proved that upper caste voters comprising Brahmin, Rajput or Thakur, Bhumihar and others mostly support the saffron brigade. A total of 70 per cent of Thakurs, 78 per cent of Brahmins and 77 per cent Bhumihars voted for the BJP-led alliance in the survey.

But these are only pre-poll surveys and it's too early to jump to any conclusion.

What surveys are saying
 

Party/Alliance BJP+ JDU+ Others
  Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes
Zee News (Oct) 147 53.80% 64 40.20% 32 6%
Times Now-C Voter (Oct) 117 43% 112 42% 14 15%
ABP-Neilsen (Oct) 128 42% 112 40% 3 18%
India Today – Cicero (Oct) 107-115 39% 117-125 41% 0 20%
CSDS- Indian Express (Oct) - 42% - 38% - 20%
News Nation 111 - 115 42% 125 - 129 45% 2 13%
Poll of polls (Mean of all the seats and vote share of all above polls)
Party/Alliance BJP+ JDU+ Others
  Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes
  118 42.80% 112 42% 13 15.20%

Comments

 

Other News

Battle over cattle, Delhi govt schools lead the way and, why we must return to Gandhi & Tagore

On May 23 this year, the ministry of environment issued ‘Rules on prevention of cruelty to animals (regulation of livestock market)’ with the purported aim of regulating animal markets. When one reads the rules – notwithstanding the lame efforts from union ministers to issue clarificati

BEML unveils 9 MW capacity windmill park

  BEML, a mini ratna category-1 enterprise of the defence ministry, has set a target of using 100 percent renewable energy for its own consumption.   In this connection, BEML’s 9 MW Windmill Park installed at Bagalkot District in Karnataka was recently

BHEL registers increase in intellectual capital

  Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL), a Maharatna enterprise, has recorded nearly 14 percent growth in its intellectual capital in 2016-17 fiscal. During the year, a record 508 patents and copyrights were filed by the company, translating into filing of nearly two patents/copyrights

NALCO partners with CII, Odisha for outreach programmes on GST

  National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) has joined hands with the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), Odisha, to organise outreach programmes for industries and other stakeholders on GST implementation.   Series of interactive programmes are being

EPFO inks MoU with HUDCO for Housing for All by 2022

  Taking prime minister Narendra Modi’s vision of ‘Housing for all by 2022’ forward, Employees` Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has amended the EPF Scheme, 1952 to provide assistance in acquiring affordable houses to the EPF members by allowing withdrawal from PF to

IndianOil LPG import terminal to reduce refill backlog in Kerala

IndianOil is currently transporting bulk LPG from Mangalore to various LPG bottling plants in north Kerala through about 100 bullet trucks every day, which ply on narrow highways. A pipeline connecting the proposed LPG import terminal to Kochi Refineries Limited and the LPG bottling plants at Udayamperoo



Video

पाकिस्तानी सेना कैमरे में कैद करना चाहती थी ये हमला

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook    Twitter    Google Plus    Linkedin    Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter