The political reality, in former Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa disproportionate assets case, is pretty clear. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government wants Jayalalithaa to be saved. BJP knows that to establish its presence in Tamil Nadu they need to have an alliance with the AIADMK.

Insiders said a political deal has struck between BJP and AIADMK. This deal is based on ‘MGR (MG Ramachandran) formula’, and that is, in upcoming assembly elections BJP will contest one-third of the total 234 seats in Tamil Nadu while the AIADMK will contest two-third of the seats. In the Lok Sabha elections BJP will contest two-third of the total 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and AIADMK will contest one-third of the seats. “It is known as MGR formula because when MG Ramachandran was the chief minister he always had alliance with national party. For Lok Sabha elections MGR’s party contested one-third of the seats while Congress contested two-third of the seats and the other way round would happen in assembly elections,” said a Chennai-based political analyst. “As such Jayalalithaa does not need BJP. But her case is legally so weak if she doesn't accept it, she would be in trouble,” added the insiders.

In the 2016 assembly elections the government formation is going to be between BJP and AIADMK versus rest, said another political observer. 

Meanwhile, it seems Karnataka is hesitating in filing the appeal in Jayalalithaa case. Karnataka government on Monday indicated that it would take “some more days” to decide on filing an appeal in the supreme court against Jayalalithaa’s acquittal in the disproportionate assets case. A meeting would be held with officials to discuss the issue, said law and parliamentary affairs minister, T B Jayachandra in Bengaluru.

A few political observers opined that at this juncture Congress president Sonia Gandhi feels she can prevent BJP-AIADMK alliance. “She would ask Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah not to let appeal be filed. Although there is no love lost between Sonia Gandhi and Jayalalithaa. But Sonia might make use of the opportunity”, added an analyst.