Iran war exposes limits of its military strength; so far, it’s a failure of Trump administration on all fronts including strategic
On April 8, hours after warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight,” US president Donald Trump, exhibiting his unique style of retreating from high-voltage brinkmanship, announced that he agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The weekend talks in Islamabad have failed and the future of the conflict remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the whole world is waiting for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which handles a fifth of global energy shipments and which Iran does not want to let slip from its octopus’s grip. The latest from the US is the threat to blockade the Strait.
Before coming to the peace talks, both the US and Iran claimed victory in the war, an assertion that reflects a familiar strain of triumphalism that the two sides appear to have carefully crafted for political optics and domestic consumption—yet, markedly detached from the reality on the ground.
Trump initially termed Iran’s 10-point proposal as “workable”, but later his spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, described it as an Iranian “wish list.” “The idea that President Trump would ever accept an Iranian wish list as a deal is completely absurd,” Leavitt said on April 9, indicating clearly that there’s many a slip between the cup and the lip.
The 10-point proposal, as per Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, includes continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of its uranium enrichment rights, lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, termination of all resolutions against Iran by the UNSC, payment of damages to Iran for war losses, termination of resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors and withdrawal of US combat forces from the region.
There is scepticism that the US will accept these proposals in toto. Experts say the Trump administration, by entering into a ceasefire deal with Iran, will seek a face-saving outcome in order to create a positive optics, at least within the country where Congress will go for the mid-term election in November.
They, however, fear that Iran could become more defiant and may alter the way the rest of the world perceives it. In their view, abrupt halt in conflict through ceasefire has risked emboldening a regime that the US wanted to change with an aim to curb its hostility towards the US and its interests in the region.
Erosion of allies’ trust in US
Nonetheless, the Iran war will be remembered as a failure of the Trump administration on all fronts, including strategic. It has lost trust of its allies who will now think twice before completely aligning themselves with the US, feel these critics. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain faced drone and missile attacks on their petrochemical plants, oil refineries, gas processing facilities, airports and ports during the past six weeks of the war.
Caught between a rock and a hard place, these Gulf countries found it hard to manage the economic fallout of the war that they never endorsed. The UAE’s 230 oil-loaded vessels are still stuck around the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran has not effectively opened it despite the US-Iran truce.
Only those vessels are allowed to cross the 167-km sea passage which has approval of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), hinting enough about Tehran’s non-compliance of the ceasefire. While Gulf countries are grappling with such harsh realities, they have lost the very image of being the key business hub of the world. As many as 18 American companies including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla and Boeing were threatened by the IRGC of attack.
Earlier, two Amazon Web Services facilities in the UAE and a Microsoft run data centre in Bahrain were attacked by Iran in the first week of the deadly conflict. Such threats and attacks have forced these companies to rethink their investments in the Gulf countries which remained attractive due to strategic advantages they enjoyed in the world.
Maintaining balanced relations with major international powers, including India, China and Russia, Gulf nations such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman were gradually inching towards positioning themselves as a global hub for artificial intelligence and data infrastructure. The Iran war and consequent attack on tech companies in the region have thrown water on these countries’ plans. Multinational tech and financial companies are now planning to shift their bases to Ireland, Scandinavian countries and central Europe to avoid risks triggered by geopolitical tensions and conflict.
Additionally, the war has impacted tourism in the region. As per an estimate from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the war cost the Gulf countries’ travel and tourism industry 515 million Euro a day. Prior to the war, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Bahrain usually processed around 526,000 passengers per day. This number started plummeting as soon as airspace closures took place on account of the war.
With the Gulf countries’ long standing security partnership with the US now exposed to uncertainty, a sense of unease has begun to take hold across the region. The Gulf countries host American bases, radars and troops in exchange for protection. But this protection failed in the face of a barrage of missile and drone attacks from Iran. Over and above, a visible rift between the US and its NATO partners over how to deal with the Middle East country has already caused credibility loss of America among its allies.
Damage in global perception of US as superpower
Amid this, global perception of the US as a superpower has significantly suffered. Critics argue that Washington has failed in its strategic objective such as compelling Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear enrichment programme and destroy its ballistic missile, drone and naval capabilities. The US military claims to have sunk over 90% of Iran’s navy.
According to a New York Times report, Iran holds a stock of over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, enough to make 10 bombs if it could be upgraded to 90%. During the course of the six weeks of war against Iran, the US targeted a range of its nuclear sites. Yet, the nuclear stockpile, especially at Isfahan, remained far from being destroyed completely. This nuclear site, believed to be located far deep under a tunnel shielded by a mountain and ridges, was though subjected to strike with 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs by the US. But it could not wipe out the uranium stockpile.
On the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s hold has increased beyond a limit. Till before the war, it was a sea passage through which no international ships or vessels encountered any direct intervention from Iran. In 2024, as per the US Energy Information Administration, 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait.
A year later, the volume of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained the same. But the war changed the game. Iran disrupted the flow of oil and gas through the Strait and created a global energy crisis.
Following the ceasefire deal, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said safe passage through the Strait would be allowed under Iranian military management, indicating clearly that Tehran will leverage more control over the narrow sea passage that straddles between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
This is what countries like India never wanted to happen. India is consistent in its stand that there should not be if and buts in free and safe navigation through international sea ways. “We continue to call for free and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,” ministry of external affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal noted. Undoubtedly, the pain that the US and Israel have inflicted on the world by launching an avoidable war against Iran will not ease very soon.
Loss of US deterrence in Indo-Pacific
The Iran conflict took place at a time when two-prominent theatres of the world – Europe and Indo-Pacific – were already in the grip of tension due to the Ukraine war and China’s growing assertiveness towards Taiwan. The US maintains strong ties with Taiwan and provides all necessary support to it to enhance its defence capabilities under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
According to experts, the Iran war led the US military to divert significant resources towards the Middle East. Although in that process, it suffered major economic and military losses. For example, going by a New York Times report, over a dozen American bases in the Gulf region, hit hard by the Iranian missiles and drones, have turned inoperative and will take months to make them come to their shapes. The US has so far not officially announced anything in this regard.
But the truth is that battle damages and replacement of equipment losses took a huge toll on the US military strength. In the first three weeks of the war alone, as per the Washington Post, the war cost the US $2.9 billion. It lost three $31 million F-15E Strike Eagles when they were mistakenly shot down by Kuwait on March 1.
The fourth F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over southern Iran on April 2 during combat operations. The US military had to destroy two MC-130 aircraft, each costing over $100 million after they experienced mechanical failures inside Iran. Tehran claimed to have shot down two US Black Hawk helicopters worth $21 million each.
All this along, the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier, which is worth $13 billion, suffered a fire on March 12 and had to return to Greece for repairs. The US also lost 13 soldiers in the course of its war against Iran.
Experts say these losses along with diversion of US military resources towards the Middle East region have led to undercutting America’s ability to maintain credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific against China and support of Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Conclusion
Overall, even if the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran may have put a pause on immediate escalation, it has not been successful in overcoming chaos and instability that it has triggered in the region. Moreover, with confidence of US allies towards Washington DC shaken, the war has ultimately exposed the limits of the US’s power projection.
On the contrary, Iran, instead of being strategically contained, has apparently consolidated its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining resilience in the face of sustained military onslaught from the US and Israel. Finally, the Iran war will be remembered for the US’s miscalculations and its stated strategic objectives.
