Shrinking winters, rising temperatures and humid coastal conditions signal intensifying climate extremes, warn experts
India is witnessing an unusually early onset of summer this year, with winter ending by early February and heatwave conditions already emerging across several parts of the country. Scientists say the trend reflects how long-term climate change is increasingly overpowering natural climate patterns such as La Nina, leading to hotter years and shrinking winters.
According to weather data, 2025 recorded an all-India annual mean land surface air temperature 0.28°C above the 1991–2020 long-term average, making it the eighth warmest year since 1901 despite the presence of La Nina, which typically cools global temperatures.
Experts say the phenomenon highlights the growing influence of global warming. Since 2020, four years have experienced La Nina conditions including a rare triple dip event lasting from 2020 to early 2023 yet each year still ranked among the warmest on record.
The early heat has already begun to manifest across the country. Temperatures in northwest India rose well above seasonal norms in the second half of February, with several regions experiencing heatwave conditions. The India Meteorological Department has warned that above-normal heatwave days are likely across most of India during the March-to-May period.
In Mumbai, temperatures touched 40°C on March 10, around 7.6°C above the seasonal average, pushing the city into severe heatwave conditions.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said persistent anti-cyclonic circulation over Gujarat delayed the cooling sea breeze that usually moderates Mumbai’s temperature. While the system has moved away, he warned that the broader challenge remains.
“Under warming climatic conditions, cities like Mumbai will experience a higher number of heatwave days in the future as baseline temperatures continue to rise,” he said.
The rising temperatures are not limited to western India. In Delhi NCR, maximum temperatures have hovered around 35°C, five to seven degrees above normal, while night temperatures remain three to four degrees higher than average, around 17°C.
Meanwhile, heatwave to severe heatwave conditions have been reported in parts of Himachal Pradesh, where daytime temperatures were 5.1°C to 8°C above normal. Similar conditions have affected Vidarbha in Maharashtra, where temperatures were recorded 3.1°C to 5°C above normal.
Experts warn that the situation may worsen in the coming weeks. Palawat said heatwave conditions are expected to expand across Rajasthan, Gujarat, and parts of Maharashtra. Coastal regions along both the east and west coasts are also likely to experience hot and humid weather, with high moisture levels increasing the “feels-like” temperature.
High humidity raises what scientists call the Wet Bulb Temperature, which measures how effectively the human body can cool itself through sweating. When humidity is high, sweat evaporates more slowly, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses and fatalities.
Winters becoming shorter and drier
The early arrival of summer also reflects a broader shift in India’s seasonal patterns. Both the Himalayan region and the Indo-Gangetic plains recorded minimal winter rainfall and snowfall this season.
February was particularly dry, with rainfall 81% below normal, only 4.2 mm compared to the seasonal average of 22.7 mm. This occurred despite an above-average number of western disturbances moving across north India. Nine such systems passed through the region, nearly double the usual five or six, but most were too weak to produce significant precipitation.
Climate change outpacing natural cycles
Scientists say natural climate cycles such as El Nino and La Nina, part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, once had a stronger influence on global temperatures. However, the accelerating pace of global warming is increasingly overshadowing these natural fluctuations.
G P Sharma, President , Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said human-induced climate change is altering the behaviour of these natural climate drivers.
“Naturally occurring climate events like El Nino, La Nina and the Indian Ocean Dipole are now being significantly affected by human-induced climate change,” Sharma said.
Scientists also point to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean as a major contributor to rising global sea surface temperatures. Studies indicate the ocean warmed at 1.2°C per century between 1950 and 2020, with climate models projecting an accelerated rate of 1.7°C to 3.8°C per century by 2100.
A new climate reality
As global warming intensifies, experts warn that seasonal weather patterns across India are becoming increasingly unpredictable. The consequences include more frequent heatwaves, erratic rainfall, shorter winters and rising climate-related risks affecting health, agriculture, water resources and economic productivity.
The emerging trend, scientists say, underscores a stark reality: climate change is no longer a distant threat but a present force reshaping India’s seasons and amplifying vulnerabilities across the country.
