Delayed monsoon: Nasa project may help India prepare better

Data shows how temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change through the year 2100

GN Bureau | June 11, 2015


#monsoon   #climate change   #rainfall   #ashobaa   #cyclone   #india   #nasa  

India battles uncertain monsoon due to El Nino this season and uncertainty is the bane of Indian agriculture sector. The policy makers and planners need to have long term plans for a country that is dependent on annual rains to sustain its agriculture and food security. In this direction a study by Nasa could handy.

NASA scientists have released a new dataset that shows how temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change through the year 2100 because of growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere.

The agency’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset is designed to assist the scientific community and general public better study and understand the effects of global climate change on various levels, including regional and local, says NASA.

Based on temperature and rainfall patterns in relation to two greenhouse gas emission scenarios on a global scale, the scientists came up with 21 different climate models, which show daily timescales for varying cities and towns.

The  data will help in developing climate risk assessments and understand local and global effects of hazards, such as severe drought, floods, heat waves and losses in agriculture productivity.

The NASA dataset integrates actual measurements from around the world with data from climate simulations created by the international Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

These climate simulations used the best physical models of the climate system available to provide forecasts of what the global climate might look like under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: a “business as usual” scenario based on current trends and an “extreme case” with a significant increase in emissions.

“NASA is in the business of taking what we’ve learned about our planet from space and creating new products that help us all safeguard our future. With this new global dataset, people around the world have a valuable new tool to use in planning how to cope with a warming planet,” said NASA chief scientist Ellen Stofan in a press release.

Monsoon delayed by Ashobaa
Meanwhile, the cyclonic storm Ashobaa has stalled the advance of the monsoon over India.

The cyclone is likely to weaken by Friday and then the monsoon current will strengthen again to progress towards north. Ashobaa may cause a further rainfall deficiency in June.

The monsoon advanced into some more parts of the central Arabian Sea, entire Goa, some parts of south Konkan, remaining parts of coastal Karnataka and more parts of south interior Karnataka on June 8. There was no advance on June 9. On June 10, however, the monsoon advanced into the remaining parts of south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, southwest Bay of Bengal, some parts of north interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.

On June 10, Ashobaa moved westwards and lay centred over northwest and adjoining west central Arabian sea, 270km southeast of Sur in Oman and 310km east-northeast of Masirah in Oman. IMD officials said Ashobaa would continue to move westwards and may further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm and cross the Oman coast as a cyclonic storm on June 11 evening.

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