India's exports are likely to cross the USD 200 billion mark for the first time this fiscal on the back of demand revival in the country's traditional markets such as the US and Europe.

In its economic outlook for 2010-11, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council projected exports to grow by about 19 per cent to USD 216 billion in the current fiscal. Not only this, the PMEAC projects merchandise exports to go further up to USD 254 billion in 2011-12.

However, the council fears that the global clouds of uncertainty may impact the growth rate.

"The anecdotal evidence from export businesses on their order position and trade enquiries suggests that a stronger growth may be possible, but there is some uncertainty about this," it said.

With contraction in global merchandise demand, India's exports declined by a meagre 1.6 per cent to USD 182 billion in 2009-10. With the shipments rising 35.7 per cent in the first two months of the current fiscal, "the USD 216 billion exports looks reasonable," a trade expert said.

Global trade has seen recovery in 2010 and the outlook looks The International Monetary Fund has projected that exports, at constant price, from emerging and developing economies would increase by 10.5 per cent in 2010. Exports from the advanced economies are also expected to rise by 8.2 per cent.

According to the March estimates of the World Trade Organisation, the global trade would grow by 9.5 per cent (at constant prices) Giving a segment-wise outlook for India's outbound shipments, the panel said growth of petroleum products would be slightly higher than that of imports, at 24 per cent and 16 per cent in 2010-11 and the next fiscal respectively.

The value of exports of gems and jewellery would show expansion of 25 per cent while export of non-oil, non-jewellery products would rise by 20 per cent in the current fiscal. Imports would increase by 18 per cent to USD 354 billion, leaving the country with a trade deficit of USD 138 billion, the council said.