There is a possibility of a hung assembly in UP, which has 403 assembly seats
GN Bureau | August 23, 2016
While the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will fight a fierce battle in the upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress will not be in contention, showed an opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
The survey stated that 30 percent of the voters said they would vote for the SP if the assembly elections were held right now. The BJP along with its two small allies, Apna Dal (Anupriya Patel faction) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, is preferred by 27 percent of the voters, followed by the BSP at 26 percent.
Incidentally, the Congress, is nowhere in the race with a mere 5 percent voters opting for it in the survey.
According to the poll, SP may win between 141-151 seats. The BJP is likely to bag 124-134 seats. BSP 103-113, the Congress 8-14, while others may get 6-12 seats.
Comparing it with the 2012 assembly election, it was clear that the BJP was the biggest gainer in terms of votes with an 11 percentage point swing towards it. However when compared with the 2014 Lok Sabha election, it is down by a massive 16 points, abplive.in reported.
The survey shows that the BJP is unable to retain the support of about 40 percent of the voters who had voted for it in the general election, and many of these are Jatavs and Yadavs. Nearly three-fourths of Jatavs are now supporting Mayawati’s party as opposed to two-thirds in 2014. Among non-Jatav Dalits, BSP’s recovery is even more impressive with 56 percent voting for the party, which is almost a two-fold increase since 2014, it added.
The SP also seems to have recovered its hold among its core voters – Yadavs and Muslims. The party is doing much better among both communities with the 68 percent of the former and 62 percent of the latter indicating support.
The survey found that at the moment the BJP is ahead of others in the Western and Eastern parts of the state. The Samajwadi Party is doing well in the Awadh and Rohilkhand regions, and in the Doab and Bundelkhand regions, it is a neck and neck situation.
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