India, boiling in anger after the brutal killing of 26 tourists in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir by terrorists belonging to 'The Resistance Front' (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, is preparing for a major offensive against the perpetrators and their handlers across the border. A strong hint of this intent came from prime minister Narendra Modi during his speech at a rally in Madhubani, Bihar, on April 24.

In a rare switch of speech from Hindi to English, which was largely aimed at an international audience, PM Modi said, “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.”  He also said, “Those who massacred innocent people in Pahalgam and those who masterminded this heinous conspiracy will face consequences far beyond their imagination,” categorically signalling that India will be unsparing in inflicting incalculable damage on terrorists and their backers from Pakistan.

India’s response to terror attack
A day earlier, on April 23, India offered a glimpse of its firm stance on punishing those responsible for the barbaric act in Pahalgam. During a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by the PM, five major decisions were taken to hold Pakistan accountable.

These decisions included: Suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty; issuing a 48-hour ultimatum for all Pakistani nationals, visiting India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES), to leave the country; reducing diplomatic staff at Pakistan as well as Indian high commissions from 55 to 30; declaring military advisors at Pakistan High Commission as persona non grata and closer of the Integrated Check Post at Attari in India’s Punjab with immediate effect.

These decisions are viewed as significant diplomatic, economic, and strategic steps against Pakistan, with the potential to inflict lasting impact on Islamabad. In particular, the decision to keep the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance is considered as far consequential in terms of its impact on the lives of people in Pakistan.

It is said that stoppage of water supply from the Indus River and its distributaries such as the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Satluj will impact lives of tens of millions of people in Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh provinces.

According to data, the water from rivers (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) meets 23% of Pakistan’s agricultural needs on which 68% of the country’s population depends. Despite fighting three wars in 1965, 1971 and the 1999 Kargil war, breakdown in diplomatic relations and conflict, India never adopted harsh measures like suspending the Indus Waters Treaty.

But in the wake of the Pahalgam terror incident, described by Modi as an attack on India’s soul, the county found it necessary to hit Pakistan hard. Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal has termed the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as an “asymmetric, potent and non-military response” to Pakistan-backed terrorism. Among experts, there is a feeling that India should have stood by its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty when a terrorist attack took place in Uri in 2016.

Even in the wake of killing of 40 CRPF personnel in Pulwama in 2019, India did not resort to stopping water flow from its side to Pakistan, though, the country was seething in outrage following and in response to it, air attacks on terrorists’ camps in Balakot in Pakistan were carried out.

But this time, in the aftermath of the heart wrenching incident of Pahalgam, India, backed by all political parties and prominent international community members, has indicated that enough is enough. It has decided to teach Pakistan lessons, especially at the time when Pakistan is struggling on several fronts including economy, defence and security and agriculture.  

“The flows of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are the backbone of our agriculture, our cities, our energy system. At this moment, we simply do not have a substitute for these waters. For Pakistan, the impact of India’s disruption (if manifested) could be far-reaching,” Hassaan F Khan said in his article ‘What India’s Indus Waters Treaty suspension means for Pakistan,’ published in Dawn on April 24.

He further noted, “Any shortfall or shift in river timing will force the state to make hard choices about water allocation. This risks intensifying inter-provincial tensions, especially between Punjab and Sindh, where water-sharing debates are already politically charged.”

Pakistan’s deepening economic crisis
Pakistan is already facing a huge economic crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut the growth forecast for Pakistan to 2.6%. Its foreign exchange reserves, as per the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, which was released in the first week of March, declined more than $150 million. The country’s foreign currency reserves stood at $11.098 billion as of March7.

On the other hand, it is heavily cash-strapped. According to CEIC Data, a London-based financial services company, which claims to provide accurate data insights into both developed and developing economies across the world, Pakistan’s external debt stood at $131.1 billion as of December 2024. Pakistan is surviving on the IMF's bailout package.

In the midst of Pakistan’s fragile economic condition, the Donald Trump administration has stopped foreign assistance funded by or through the State Department and US Agency for International Development (USAID).

Fragile political situation
In its 75-year political history, Pakistan has never witnessed any prime minister completing a full-five-year term. Pakistani PMs have been removed largely on account of corruption charges, infighting between parties or due to direct military coups.

Military chiefs like Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Zia Ul Haq, and Pervez Musharraf came to power after ousting the lawfully and democratically elected leaders from power. Although, following the 18th Amendment of Pakistan’s Constitution, the army's direct take over of power in the country has been forestalled.

But still Pakistani army generals are important players in the determination of the country’s political fate. However, frequent military intervention has weakened the democratic system in the country and has exacerbated political instability. Pakistan’s 19th Prime Minister Imran Khan, who ran the country from August 2018 to April 2022, was voted out of power on corruption charges.

While political instability has hampered Pakistan’s economic growth, it has also led to reduction in the country’s credibility with international partners and financial institutions. Today, it is wallowing in chaos, widespread poverty, corruption, and ethnic tension across regions.

Conclusion
Despite Pakistan’s grim political, economic and security scenario, the country has not ceased from cross-border terrorism. The Pahalgam incident serves as a grim reminder of this persistent threat, orchestrated by Pakistan through its strategic terror assets such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and The Resistance Front (TRF). These groups have long been instrumental in advancing Pakistan’s disruptive agenda in Jammu and Kashmir. The motive behind such acts appears clear: To destabilize the region and send a message to New Delhi, perhaps driven by resentment over India’s growing global stature while Pakistan grapples with crises on multiple fronts.

However, in its attempts to undermine India, Pakistan seems to overlook a critical reality—it has already lost ground in the broader geopolitical contest. International support has waned, traditional allies have grown distant, and its narrative finds little traction in global forums. In contrast, India continues to consolidate its position as a stable, rising power. In this battle of nerves, Islamabad's provocations appear increasingly desperate, revealing more about its internal insecurities than any coherent strategy.