Cash flows likely to ease on Gov spending, redemptions

Over Rs 65,000 crore is expected to return to the system on account of redemptions

PTI | June 11, 2010



The tight liquidity condition in the system is unlikely to persist beyond the short-term once the government start spending and money from bond redemptions coming in to the system in the approaching weeks.

Over Rs 65,000 crore is expected to return to the system on account of redemptions of government bonds starting next week. These include Rs 10,000 crore G-Sec redemptions next week, nearly Rs 21,000 crore of T-bills on July 2 and Rs 36,000 crore G-Secs towards the end of July.

"Given such a huge cash flow, there should not be any liquidity worries beyond the short-term. Also, there is this Government spending coming in," IDBI Gilts, managing director and CEO, G A Tadas told PTI.

Reflecting the tight liquidity conditions, banks have been borrowing close to Rs 60,000 crore from RBI's repo window at 5.25 per cent in the past few days. But the borrowing level is likely to come down in the days ahead, Tadas said.

Tadas, however, ruled out the possibility of any devolvement in the coming week when Rs 11,000 crore Government bonds are coming up for auction.

Economists, however, are divided on the chances of RBI hiking rates prior to the policy announcement on July 27. Some believe that the high inflation might prompt the apex bank to act mid-next month.

The RBI may hike rates by 0.25 per cent by mid-July as the May inflation data, due on 14th is likely to hover around 9.40 per cent, even as concerns of tight cash conditions are likely to ease by mid-July when Government starts spending, Bank of Baroda Chief Economist, Rupa Rege Nitsure said.

The apex bank increased its short term rates by 0.50 per cent so far this year and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by one per cent to unwind its accommodative stance.

"Inflation is not coming down structurally and demand for foodgrains is growing substantially. I feel that RBI will have to raise rates by 25 bps even before the policy," Nitsure said.

The tight liquidity scenario in the system, on account of nearly Rs 68,000 crore recent payments by telecom companies and advance tax outgo, is unlikely to persist beyond the short term when the Government start spending, she said.

The central bank is in a dilemma of whether to hike its policy rates or hold them for sometime going forward while simultaneously cushioning the domestic markets from the rippling effect of Euro-zone debt crisis that is feared to have contagion effect in other markets.

On the other side, banks have already indicated that lending rates in the system will move northward on another round of rate hike from the Reserve Bank. "I feel that there will be a rise in the deposit rates, which will be followed by a hike in lending rates rates," Nitsure said.

However, the global uncertainties are likely to result in high volatility in the form of cross-border capital flows in the months ahead and the Rupee is likely to trade in a wide band of 43.50-47.50 the rest of the year, Nitsure said.

Foreign investors have bought USD 4.862 billion worth shares so far in 2010. Recently, Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had said that capital flows could be adversely impacted if the Eurozone crisis persists.
 

Comments

 

Other News

Is it advantage India in higher education?

Harvard, Oxford and Cambridge: The Past, Present and Future of Excellence in Education By Rajesh Talwar Bridging Borders, 264 pages

Elections ’24: Candidates discuss city issues at Mumbai Debate

With the financial capital of India readying to go for Lok Sabha polls in the fifth phase on May 20, a debate with the candidates was organised jointly by the Free Press Journal, Mumbai Press Club, Praja Foundation and the Indian Merchants` Chamber here on Wednesday. The candidates engaged with the audienc

What Prakash Singh feels about the struggle for police reforms

Unforgettable Chapters: Memoirs of a Top Cop By Prakash Singh Rupa Publications, Rs 395, 208pages Prakash Singh

General Elections: Phase 3 voter turnout 64.4%

Polling in third phase of General Elections recorded an approximate voter turnout of 64.4%, as of 11:40 pm Tuesday, as per the data released by the Election Commission of India close to the midnight. The trend of lower turnout witnessed in the first two phases has thus continued in this round too.

How infra development is shaping India story

India is the world’s fifth largest economy with a GDP of USD 3.7 trillion today, and it is expected to become the third largest economy with a GDP of USD 5 trillion in five years. The Narendra Modi-led government aims to make India a developed country by 2047. A key driver of this economic growth and

75 visitors from abroad watch world’s largest elections unfold

As a beacon of electoral integrity and transparency, the Election Commission of India (ECI) exemplifies its commitment to conduct general elections of the highest standards, offering a golden bridge for global Election Management Bodies (EMBs) to witness democratic excellence first-hand. It continues foste

Visionary Talk: Amitabh Gupta, Pune Police Commissioner with Kailashnath Adhikari, MD, Governance Now


Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter