So the UPA-II is on the verge of losing its fourth ally in just over as many months, as DMK chief M Karunanidhi announced on Tuesday morning that his party would withdraw support to the government over India’s stand on the UN-sponsored resolution against alleged human rights violations by the Sri Lankan government.

It came just before noon, as the octogenarian party chief read out a statement to the media in Chennai, saying the party, with 18 Lok Sabha MPs, would not even offer outside support.

While the Congress oozed confidence — at least in public, as finance minister P Chidambaram told the media in New Delhi soon after Karunanidhi’s presser, “Let me assure everyone that the government is absolutely stable and enjoys a majority in the Lok Sabha” —even the DMK patriarch has left a little window of opportunity to get back on the right side of the ruling Congress. “If parliament passes a resolution ahead of the vote, we might change our stance,” Karunanidhi said at the media conference in Chennai.

As another indication that his heart is in the right place vis-à-vis the Congress, though the ground realities might be different, Karunanidhi said the five DMK ministers in the Manmohan Singh government would “quit the government either today or tomorrow”. If it’s the latter, it’s a good 24 hours of window to Singh and his team of troubleshooters to fix the snags and get the Dravidian party back in its fold. And attempts to that is still on, as Renuka Chowdhury said, in typical political-speak, “It is too premature to say anything right now. Discussions are on. Let us see how we get our allies together in the service of the nation.”

While Karunanidhi is seen to be taking this ‘tough step’ to stay politically relevant in the elections that could take place anytime between this autumn and summer next year — he perhaps batted fewer eyelids even at the height of the 2G scam when his daughter M Kanimozhi and her fellow DMK MP and former telecom minister A Raja were cooling their heels in Delhi’s Tihar jail — there is also the question of one-upmanship with chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK over the ‘Tamil identity’ issue.

India’s stand in the UN resolution against Sri Lanka, likely to come up either tomorrow or the day after, might have little bearing on the life of the average Tamil person in the country — but it is a huge opportunity for the DMK to score brownie points, and be seen on the ‘right’ side of the victims. In that sense, the withdrawal of support makes sense for the party, which could be in a win-win situation now: it could claim all the credit if India calls for tougher words in the resolution against Colombo, and it could cry the martyr’s cry in case India does not.

The DMK’s pullout makes sense for the Congress, too, as the party can now think (ahem!) things through before deciding on the resolution.

And though the likes of Mamata Banerjee might be forecasting general elections as early as this autumn, chances for that seem more than a little distant at present, as neither the Bahujan Samaj Party, an outside supporter to the Manmohan government, nor in fact the Samajwadi Party, past its honeymoon period in Uttar Pradesh and allegations of tardy governance rising, would want elections right away. While the former has little reason to believe it has done anything worth note to get over last year’s drubbing in the assembly polls, the latter have not seemed to be in a poll mood; else the SP had opportunities earlier as well.

For now, the game is likely to be confined to parliament and streets of Chennai and other parts of Tamil Nadu.