India’s southwest monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit in 2026, its weakest performance in a decade, raising concerns over agricultural production, water security and the upcoming rabi season. With El Niño expected to persist into early 2027, experts warn that declining soil moisture, depleted groundwater and warmer-than-normal temperatures could intensify stress on crops and livelihoods.
Five states -- Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra -- have declared drought. Maharashtra has declared drought across 75% of the state, adding to concerns about rice, wheat, cotton, sugar and hydropower production.
Despite the seasonal shortfall, much of the rainfall occurred in heavy spells, highlighting increasingly uneven rainfall distribution, meteorologists say prolonged dry periods interspersed with intense rainfall can complicate agriculture, groundwater recharge and water management.
“The behaviour of monsoon systems has changed significantly, altering rainfall patterns. Low-pressure systems are now spending more time over land than usual while retaining their strength, partly due to a sustained supply of moisture,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather. He added that this has contributed to more extreme rainfall events and cloudburst-like conditions.
East and Northeast India, South Peninsula record major deficits
East and Northeast India recorded 1,017.1 mm of rainfall against a normal of 1,367.3 mm between June 1 and September 30, a deficit of 25.6% and the region’s lowest seasonal total since 1901. Nine of the past 10 years have seen below-normal rainfall in the region.
Assam recorded deficient rainfall in 22 of its 35 districts, while 12 of Arunachal Pradesh’s 16 districts and 10 of Meghalaya’s 11 districts reported shortfalls. In Bihar, 33 of 38 districts recorded deficient rainfall.
The South Peninsula received 542 mm against a normal of 716 mm, its fourth-lowest monsoon total since 1901. Karnataka recorded a 30% deficit, followed by Kerala at 28%, Andhra Pradesh at 25% and Tamil Nadu at 20%. Rayalaseema registered a 40% deficit, while Ramanagara district in Karnataka reported a 91% shortfall.
In contrast, Central India received 952.8 mm against a normal of 978 mm, while Northwest India recorded 553 mm against 587.6 mm, allowing both regions to finish near normal.
Dr K. J. Ramesh, former Director General of the India Meteorological Department, attributed the relatively better performance to successive low-pressure systems and their influence over Central and Northwest India.
El Niño and global warming raise temperature concerns
The developing El Niño is expected to influence weather conditions into early 2027. Its interaction with long-term global warming could intensify heat stress, dry spells and water scarcity, although the impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon rainfall varies between events.
“Climate change does not cause El Niño, but it raises the background temperature, adding extra heat and intensifying many of its impacts,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and lead IPCC author.
The India Meteorological Department forecast cited in the assessment indicates that most parts of the country could experience below-normal winter rainfall alongside above-average temperatures.
Palawat warned that the coming months could bring further temperature records, with 2026 and 2027 potentially ranking among the warmest years of the decade.
Rice acreage declines as water stress builds
Agricultural data as of October 5, 2026, shows that rice, sugarcane and cotton acreage declined in 2026–27 compared with the corresponding period in 2025–26. Rice recorded the sharpest fall, with sown area down by 15.56 lakh hectares. Telangana and Karnataka accounted for declines of 4.26 lakh and 4.23 lakh hectares, respectively.
Pulses and oilseeds, meanwhile, recorded increases, potentially reflecting farmers’ efforts to shift towards less water-intensive crops.
“The challenge is not just the rainfall deficit, but its uneven distribution, delayed onset and prolonged dry spells. Lower rainfall also limits groundwater recharge, increasing irrigation dependence and putting even irrigated crops at risk,” said Dr G. V. Ramanjaneyulu, Executive Director, Centre for Sustainable Agriculture. He stressed that crop diversification and improved soil management would be critical to building resilience.
Low reservoir storage heightens Rabi risks
The Central Water Commission reported that live storage across 178 monitored reservoirs stood at 78.71% of the corresponding level last year and 87.08% of normal storage as of October 8, 2026.
The Southern region was particularly vulnerable, with storage at 47.22% of normal, followed by the Northern region at 58.63%. Lower reservoir levels, reduced groundwater recharge and declining soil moisture could constrain irrigation during the Rabi and summer crop seasons.
The Agriculture Ministry has set a foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes for 2026–27, 2.63 million tonnes below estimated output for 2025–26.
Dr Ramesh warned that summer-like conditions could arrive as early as February, increasing heat stress on crops amid constrained water availability.
Aarti Khosla, Director, Climate Trends, a research-based consulting and capacity-building initiative focused on the environment, climate change and sustainable development called for stronger early-warning systems, heat action plans, public health preparedness and local resilience, emphasising that heat must be treated as a sustained risk rather than an isolated extreme event.
The convergence of El Niño, global warming and uneven rainfall underscores the need for better water management, crop diversification and advance preparation for heat and drought risks.
