Southwest Monsoon 2025 recently concluded with ‘above-normal’ rainfall to the tune of 108% of the long-period average (LPA). This is second consecutive year in the last decade to record above normal rains. Climate change has a critical role in driving the rainfall on the higher side, according to experts. 

India recorded 2,277 floods and heavy rainfall events during the entire season, leading to the loss of
1,528 lives during the four-month long season. As many as 290 people were reported to be killed across Madhya Pradesh due to extreme weather events, 201 in Uttar Pradesh, 141 people in Himachal Pradesh and 139 in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Monsoon 2025 caused severe flooding and landslides in India, particularly in the northern states, leading to thousands of deaths, widespread displacement, and extensive infrastructure damage. Several river basins that had remained dormant for years experienced a renewed surge in water levels.

These are among the key highlights of a detailed analysis prepared by Climate Trends, a research consultancy. Among main points of the analysis are:

Rainfall Distribution: 
45% of India’s landmass experienced extreme rainfall during Monsoon 2025, climate change responsible
● 19 subdivisions (46% area) had normal rainfall
● 12 subdivisions (35%) saw excess rainfall
● 2 subdivisions (10%) reported large excess rainfall
● 3 subdivisions (9%) recorded deficient rainfall
Regional Trends:
● Top Performer: Northwest India (+27% rainfall) — highest since 2001, driven by record rainfall in Ladakh (+342%) and Rajasthan (+60–70%).
● Core Monsoon Zone: Central India showed strong performance, led by Gujarat (+25%), Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.
● Poor Performer: East & Northeast India faced a 20% rainfall deficit, with Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Bihar among the worst affected.

Extreme Weather Events:
● India witnessed 2,277 floods and heavy rainfall events during the season.
● 1,528 lives lost, with major casualties in Madhya Pradesh (290), Uttar Pradesh (201),
Himachal Pradesh (141), and Jammu & Kashmir (139).
● 14 of 18 monsoon weeks saw excess or large excess rainfall.

Flooding and River Surges:
● 59 Highest Flood Level (HFL) breaches recorded across 9 river basins during monsoon 2025, third highest since 2020
● Ganga Basin alone accounted for 32 incidents (including 10 in the Yamuna).
● August 2025 was the most flood-intensive month with 28 HFL breaches.

Climate Drivers:
● Monsoon intensification is linked to global warming, leading to fewer rainy days but higher concentration of rainfall per event.
● Western Disturbances (WDs) now influence monsoon rains due to the northward expansion the seasonal shift of a high-altitude wind current from its winter position south of the Himalayas to a summer position north of them
● Increased sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal have led to 
greater moisture loading, or higher evaporation
● Middle East warming contributes to atmospheric instability over Northwest India, enhancing convection and heavy rains

According to meteorologists, the rainfall data over the years clearly shows that most of the rainfall is
realised in the form of heavy rainfall. The data depicted below shows that most of the rainfall in the last 12 years has shown an upward trend.

“Monsoon seasons are not the same anymore. The last 10 years have recorded normal to above normal rainfall, with the latter being more prominent. Monsoon amplification and intensification are directly linked to global warming. Global warming has become the biggest driver of the monsoon now. The influence of El Niño and La Niña has been decreasing in the global warming era. The number of rainy days has decreased, but the quantum of rainfall has increased. Daily quantum of rainfall has undergone a significant change,” KJ Ramesh, former director general of India Meteorological Department, was quoted as saying in the analytical report.

“Behavioural pattern of monsoon systems has changed drastically, altering rainfall patterns as well. We now see low pressure areas spending more numbers of days than its average period over the land that too maintaining the strength. This is mainly because of the increased and continuous moisture feed over the land as well. With not just extreme rainfall events have increased but there has also been rise in cloudburst like conditions as well. This was not the case earlier,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President- Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

Human-induced climate change has significantly affected the magnitude spatial variability of the monsoon in recent years, notes Climate Trends. Global-scale factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols, along with local-scale changes like urbanisation and changes in land use, have contributed substantially to Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR).

“There has been a significant increase in rainfall over Rajasthan, especially the eastern parts in the last two decades, followed by Gujarat. Simultaneously, rain in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and North Karnataka has also increased, but not to the extent of West India. Meanwhile, rainfall has decreased across Uttar Pradesh and Bihar due to aerosol pollution. Rise in aerosols leads to a complex atmospheric situation, resulting in a decrease in rainfall. Decline in rainfall across Northeast India is due to a shift in rainfall patterns due to climate change. All these trends will continue in the coming year. We have just one way, and that is to learn to adapt,” said Dr K J Ramesh.

Prof. AP Dimri, director of Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, said, “The present dispensation of disasters across the places situated along the southern rim of the western Himalayas is of serious significance. It is the cumulative addition of precipitation from monsoon, local orographic sources/interactions and glaciers. The series of floods and fury witnessed during the monsoon 2025 is not very common over the region during the monsoon season. It is a combined effect of various effects and impacts of climate change.”

The increase in rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions of the Northern Hemisphere is amplified, averaging 15 per cent per degree Celsius of warming—double the rate expected from increases in atmospheric water vapour, according to a recent study, ‘Global warming intensifies rainfall in mountainous regions’.