Chennai based digital news start-up Ippothu.com, in a pre-poll survey has found that the Jayalalithaa-led government will get a decisive victory in the upcoming assembly elections. The survey that was carried out across Tamil Nadu during the second week of April says that the AIADMK-led alliance will be winning 210 to 218 seats.

The survey result also says that the DMK-led alliance could be behind Vijayakanth-led alliance, though both will get only few seats. The survey was led by Peer Mohammed, a senior journalist in Tamil Nadu.

The survey covered a sample of a little over 4,500 voters. The voters were chosen from the voters’ list using the following criteria: One out of every two voters is a woman; One out of every three voters is in the age group 18-30 years; One out of every three voters is in the age group 30-55 years; One out of every three voters is in the age group above 55 years old, said Mohammed.

It seems AIADMK will be repeating its success story of 2011 because of the overwhelming support of the poor in the urban and rural segments. Jayalalithaa’s idea of running a welfare state, enabling educational and public health opportunities for ordinary people might apparently be paying off this time. Another factor that could contribute to this is the divided opposition in Tamil Nadu, according to the survey.

Mohammed says that if the present trend continues over the next 28 days, AIADMK will create history by bucking the trend and ending regime changes in the state every five years. Tamil Nadu has seen regime changes for 27 years from 1989. The last time Tamil Nadu saw a ruling chief minister winning an assembly election to comeback to power was in 1984 when M G Ramachandran (MGR), Jayalalithaa’s mentor returned to power.