The results of assembly elections in five states as expected are largely unexpected. People’s mandate has once again got better of both politics and newsroom punditry. Samajwadi Party moving towards a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh, Akali-BJP closing in towards an affirmative victory in Punjab, the saffron party giving a neck-and-neck fight to Congress in Uttarakhand after conveniently taking Goa are all unexpected results. The only gain for the Congress is Manipur, thanks to the absence of an opposition in the state. On the contrary, the BJP claimed Goa and Punjab and it faired pretty well in Uttarakhand. Leader of opposition in Lok Sabha Swaraj maintained that there is a need for serious introspection about why the BJP could not do well in UP and it will be discussed within the party. At the same time, a host of heads in the Congress offered to roll for the party’s poll debacle in UP, but Rahul Gandhi gracefully accepted defeat and said his efforts to build up the party in the state would continue.  

Bicycle in CM house in UP

The Samajwadi Party’s image makeover strategy under its leader Akhilesh Yadav has worked well. Even for the SP, this is the biggest victory since its formation. In over two decades, no other party has secured more than 210 seats alone in the state assembly. While thanking voters for huge success, Akhilesh Yadav said, “It was only SP which came out on streets on issues of public interest.” On the precedent of gooda raj during his party’s earlier regime, Yadav firmly said, “Anyone meddling with law and order will not be spared.”

For all other stakeholders in the state’s politics, the defeat was upsetting. BSP was shocked by the dent in its consolidated dalit vote bank. BJP president Nitin Gadkari’s political calculation of riding on an anti-incumbency wave and woo back his party’s traditional upper caste vote bank failed badly. Similarly, Rahul Gandhi and his Man Friday Digvijay Singh (who also turned impromptu photographer for the Congress scion at his rallies) were in for a picture-imperfect moment. The young leader’s charisma even failed to insulate Rae Bareli and Amethi (Gandhi family bastions) from the pro-Samajwadi Party wave in the state elections.

Results in UP also sprang changing trends in the state’s politics. Muscleman DP Yadav lost from Sahaswan assembly seat where Onkar Singh Yadav of SP won defeating BSP's Babar Miyan by 7,062 votes. While Abhishek Mishra, who was a professor in IIM-Ahemdabad, has won from Lucknow North seat on an SP ticket. Despite locking horns with the election commission over his repeated quota promise to Muslims, union law minister Salman Khurshid could not help his wife Louis Khurshid win from Farukkhabad assembly seat which independent candidate Vijay Singh won by defeating BJP's Major Sunil Dutt Dwivedi by a slender margin of 147 votes. 

Akalis make a comeback in Punjab

The ruling Shiromani Akal Dal (SAD)-Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) alliance has created history as the state has not seen the incumbent coming to power in the last 46 years.  The SAD-BJP has won 68 seats of the total 117. This is more than what they got in 2007. The senior Badal has attributed the success to development agenda the party had and maintenance of peace in the state during the past five years.

Party president Sukhbir Singh Badal said, “it is the people’s confidence in Prakash Singh Badal’s leadership and the work done by him that led to victory in the state.” The party will soon decide who will be the next chief minister of the state.

The Congress, meanwhile, has managed to win 46 seats which are two seats more than previous elections. Punjab Congress president and former chief minister Captain Amrinder Singh took responsibility of party’s loss and said he was ready to step down.

Surprisingly, the presence of third force – led by former finance minister Manpreet Singh Badal did not make any difference. Manpreet broke away from SAD in March 2010 and formed People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) along with his father Gurdas, who is Prakash Singh Badal’s younger brother. The PPP, with support from CPI and CPM, formed Sanjha Morcha and contested elections on issues relating to finance and economy. The party got huge response during campaigning from the youth and lot of people turned up in rallies. But that did not turn into votes and it failed to create a mark. Manpreet himself lost from both Maur and Gidderbaha. He had represented Gidderbaha four times.

BJP springs surprise in Uttarakhand

Riding on the clean image of its poster boy BC Khanduri and the slogan of Khanduri hai Zaroori (Khanduri is necessary), the BJP is in a neck-and-neck race with the Congress Party in Uttarakhand.

At 5 pm on Tuesday, the ruling BJP had won 25 seats and was leading in another seven of a total of 70 while the Congress had won 27 and leading in four. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had won three seats while others parties and independents had secured two and were leading in another two. However, after trailing against SS Negi of Congress from Kotdwar seat, outgoing Khanduri faced defeat.

BJP now leads by a narrow margin.

Others like state BJP president Bishan Singh Chufal won the Didihaat constituency, while Uttarakhand Pradesh Congress Committee chief Yashpal Arya won from Baajpur seat.

Despite Khanduri’s loss, BJP’s performance in the state can be credited to the 78-year old retired general who became the chief minister in the fag end of the BJP’s term in the state. Khanduri had replaced Ramesh ‘Nishank’ Pokhriyal at the helm of the government in 2011 after the latter faced charges of corruption. Khanduri’s achievements date back to the days when he was the surface transport minister in the NDA government at the centre. In fact, he had also earlier served as the Uttrakhand chief minister before the state unit decided to make Pokhriyal CM. Ahead of the elections, sensing a backlash over corruption in the state, BJP brought him back. The move seems to have saved the party from a certain fall from grace even though some argued that Khanduri did not get enough time to salvage the party’s fortunes for a complete turnaround.

BJP president Nitin Gadkari said that he was confident that BJP will form the government in the state. He said at a press conference in the national capital on Tuesday that even though there is a close race between the two national parties, the support of the independent candidates in Uttarakhand could help the party stake claim to forming the government.

Goa ousts Congress, brings back Parrikar

Goa is all set to go to the Bharatiya Janata Party which has thrown the incumbent Congress roundly on to the mat. BJP, as of Tuesday afternoon, was leading in 22 seats of a total of 40 while Congress was riding the surf safe in only 8 constituencies. Other parties and independents were set to win 7 seats. The counting is in progress in two centres in Panaji and Margao.

Congress biggies like urban development minister Joaquim Alemao, power minister Alexio Sequeira and Pradesh Congress Committe chief Subhash Shirodkar have lost. Alemao, in fact, has lost to first-timer Rajan Naik of the BJP.

The vote has been decisively against the Alemao family — public works department minister Churchill Alemao lost from Navelim. His daughter Valanka lost from Benaulim to the candidate from Goa Vikas Party.

Mickey Pacheco, who was in the news in connection with the mysterious death of a woman, has won the Nuvem seat defeating Sequeira. Controversial education minister Atanasio Monseratte also won.

The Congress debacle in Goa has as much to do with BJP's Manohar Parrikar, the IITian who is now the CM-in waiting, as it has with the mining scam in the state which happened under the very nose of the government, the deteriorating law and order as evidenced by murder of foreign tourists, and with the 'family raj' in the state as alleged by at least one Congress leader.

The outgoing chief minister Digambar Kamat's government had been accused of aiding illegal mining in the state. That is not all — Joaquim Alemao is a listed 'goonda' with state police while Churchill, a former chief minister, had once been booked under the Foreign Exchange Management Act and detained under the National Security Act.

The Alemao family is just a symptom of the 'family raj' that ails Goa Congress. The party spokesperson Ramakant Khalap, even before the final results were out, termed the Congress performance as its "Waterloo" and blamed the blatant nepotism. Almost 33 percent of the tickets for 33 of the seats in which Congress was contesting had been given to the kin of sitting MLAs.

The opposition BJP had projected Parrikar, well-known as a 'clean' politician, as the chief ministerial candidate. Parrikar, who had to give chief ministership in 2005 — thanks to defecting MLAs — after winning in 2002, spearheaded the campain against illegal mining in the state. His anti-illegal mining campaign had found support from all religious communities in the state — a rare alignment.

Parrikar, on Tuesday, expressed relief that this time he did not have to rely on any alliance.

Congress to retain Manipur

Manipur has overwhelmingly voted in favour of the ruling Congress. Chief minister Ibobi Singh can safely look forward to another term at the helm of the state which has been reeling under insurgency and economic blockades.

Congress had won/was leading in 43 of the 60 assembly seats in the state while opposition Trinamool Congress was a distant second with just 7 seats. People's Democratic Front had managed just one seat while independents and other parties had garnered 9.

The Congress has fortified its hold over the state playing up the identity politics of the conflict between the ethnic Meitei and Naga groups. The Naga insurgents had crippled the state for a chunk of last year, putting it under an economic blockade by sealing off the highways for supplies of essential goods from other states. The absence of an opposition also helps the Congress' case. The BJP national party chief Nitin Gadkari's statement at a press conference that the Congress victory is "not politically significant as Manipur is a small state" will ensure that Congress keeps its stranglehold.