Exports climb but growth unlikely to sustain

US and European economies will affect growth rate

PTI | August 11, 2011



India's exports jumped by a record 81.8 per cent year-on-year to USD 29.3 billion in July, 2011, due to the sterling performance of sectors like engineering, petrochemical products and gems and jewellery.

However, this high growth rate is unlikely to be sustained in the coming months due to uncertainty in the US and European economies, commerce secretary Rahul Khullar said.

"Exports have done well... but my sense is that it (high export growth) is not going to sustain. It is simply not sustainable. We should see immediately by August-September growth rates slipping," Khullar told reporters here.

During April-July, 2011-12, overseas shipments of Indian products grew by 54 per cent to USD 108.3 billion.

Though most of the sectors posted robust expansion in export volumes, Khullar cautioned that the exporting community should not get carried away by these high numbers and should brace themselves as "summer is not over".

Uncertain economic conditions in the US and Europe are likely to hit global demand. Together, these countries account for about 35 per cent of the country's exports.

Imports, too, increased by 51.5 per cent to USD 40.4 billion, leaving a trade deficit of USD 11.1 billion.

During the first four months of the fiscal, imports grew by 40 per cent to USD 151 billion, led by inbound shipments of petroleum products worth USD 42 billion, an increase of 23 per cent year-on-year. The trade deficit during the period stood at USD 42.7 billion.

Commenting on the data, exporters' body Fieo said: "The growth of 81.8 per cent in exports is unheard of in recent history."

In July, India's engineering, petroleum products and gems and jewellery exports were worth USD 8.7 billion, USD 4.6 billion and USD 3.5 billion, respectively.

In July, imports of petroleum and oil lubricants stood USD 11.45 billion. Imports of pearls and semi-precious stones, gold and silver stood at USD 3.7 billion, respectively.

Fieo, too, said the high growth trend of exports is unlikely during the third and fourth quarter.

"The problem at the domestic front with hike in interest rates for exports and un-certainty over continuance of DEPB Scheme have further accentuated the problem," Fieo president Ramu Deora said.

Khullar also said that hike in interest rates are mainly hit small and medium enterprises. "People of SME sector have been complaining to me and that I am trying to do something on that."

During the April-July period, sectors which registered healthy growth in exports include engineering, petroleum products (60 per cent), readymade garments (40 per cent), electronics (84 per cent), chemicals (63 per cent) and plastics (51 per cent).

Export sectors which are not doing well during the period include tobacco, iron ore and fruits and vegetables.

During the period, pearls and semi-precious stones increased to USD 11.16 billion, machinery (45 per cent), electronics (75 per cent), chemicals (19 per cent).

On trade deficit, Khullar said that on an average monthly trade gap stood at roughly about USD 10.75 billion. Going by this, India's trade deficit may touch USD 130 billion in 2011-12.

"If you do not fix your balance of trade problem, you are going to have a difficult issue," he said.

Talking about demand in the new markets, he said that exports are registering good growth in new markets like in Latin America and Africa.

"In Africa, we are doing extremely well. Numbers are almost more than double," he said.

Comments

 

Other News

The economics of representation: Why women in power matter

India’s democracy has grown in scale, but not quite in balance. Women today are active participants in elections, influencing outcomes in ways that were not as visible earlier. Yet their presence in legislative institutions continues to lag behind. The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam was meant to addres

India will be powerful, not aggressive: Bhaiyyaji

India is poised to emerge as a global power but will remain rooted in its civilisational ethos of non-aggression and harmony, former RSS General Secretary Suresh `Bhaiyyaji` Joshi has said.   He was speaking at the launch of “Rashtrabhav,” a book by Ravindra Sathe

AI: Code, Control, Conquer

India today stands at a critical juncture in the area of artificial intelligence. While the country is among the fastest adopters of AI in the world, it remains heavily reliant on technologies developed elsewhere. This paradox, experts warn, cannot persist if India seeks technological sovereignty.

RBI pauses to assess inflation risks, policy transmission

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has begun the new fiscal year with a calibrated pause, keeping the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent in its April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The decision, taken unanimously, reflects a shift from aggressive policy action to cautious observation after a signi

New pathways for tourism growth

Traditionally, India’s tourism policy has been based on three main components: the number of visitors, building tourist attractions and providing facilities for tourists. Due to the increase in climate-related issues and environmental destruction that occurred over previous years, policymakers have b

Is the US a superpower anymore?

On April 8, hours after warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight,” US president Donald Trump, exhibiting his unique style of retreating from high-voltage brinkmanship, announced that he agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The weekend talks in Islamabad have failed and the futur


Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter