In Pakistan, the energy crisis is near-debilitating. So much so, that some citizens live virtually in the dark ages. Power is hardly there in normal hours, let alone the peak hours. Long power cuts are routine. So, inevitably, the ‘powerless’ citizens’ anger was reflected in the recently concluded national elections in the country. Pakistan chose the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML (N). Nawaz Sharif, who became the newest democratically elected premier of the country, had successfully harnessed this anger in his electorate before the polls, giving the impression that his government would work towards solving Pakistan’s energy crisis.

But the defining demagoguery of South Asian politicians has always been thus — promise something but do a volte face once in power. Remember, the power problem was THE priority for the government. But, it has chosen to push money into defence instead, hiking the latter’s budget by 15 percent for the current fiscal. Guns and bullets over electricity, that’s what it chose. Now, citizens have to live in the dark while the newest guns fire the newest bullet somewhere at its borders.

The amount from the government coffers earmarked for defence for 2013 now stands at Pakistani Rs (PR) 627.2 billion, an increase of PR 82 billion over last year. The army has yet again cornered the major chunk of this allotment receiving PR 301.54 billion, followed by the air force which got PR 131.18 billion and the navy which got Rs 62.8 billion. At the same time, the country’s energy sector (including all sources) is burdened with an outstanding debt of $5 billion (a little over PR 492 billion)!

With the skewed budgeting, the Sharif government has sent out a clear message: it won’t antagonize the army. In his campaign, Sharif had been outspoken against the army, remembering well his ouster in October 1999 in a bloodless coup led by General Pervez Musharraf.  With the army’s influence in Islamabad showing little sign of waning, Sharif cannot afford to take it head on. Also, a day after the budget was announced, Musharraf was arrested in a murder case — something that would not have sat well with the armed establishment. So, whichever concern it was that forced Sharif’s hand — keeping the army away from Islamabad or placating ruffled feathers — it is clear that the Pakistani government chose a policy of appeasement.

The army is fighting a difficult battle with the Taliban militia in the northern tribal regions of the country. Analysts see a justification of the allocation in the expenses that are associated with such military operations.

But what message has Pakistan sent out to its neigbours. For India, the signal from across the border is not promising in the littlest bit. India was hoping that Sharif would stick to pre-poll position of improving bi-lateral relations. But the hike for the army only means that Sharif stands behind an establishment that is hawkish when it comes to us. Besides, Islamabad has always been accused by India of diverting funds that are earmarked for the insurgeny at the Afghan border to its Kahsmir machinations. So, why should it be different this time around? There is little guarantee that hostilities between the two countries will not flare up with the increased budget allocation for the Pakistani defence.

In Nawaz Sharif, New Delhi saw an ‘honest’ politician who wanted to improve Indo-Pak relations. After all, Sharif and former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee were the architects of the Delhi-Lahore bus route as a peace initiative. But then, Kargil happened and hands were pulled bank mid-handshake.
Fourteen years after the Kargil misadventure, with a historic mandate, Sharif had a chance to mend fences. But, like always, the opportunity was frittered away with the proverbial slip between the cup and the lip. The hike in Pakistan’s defence budget shows that New Delhi will have to be careful and do a lot of soul-searching with its neigbour.