Battle lines are being redrawn, new alliances forged and aggressive political strategies are on the anvil to rewrite the political scenario of Andhra Pradesh. After a long time, Hyderabad was agog with a political buzz that was, for once, not centred on the vexed issue of Telangana during the week preceding Diwali earlier this month.

The trigger was an outbreak of communal tension, arson and violence over a week, almost dampening the already-lukewarm festival mood, with accusations flying thick and fast and leaders of both communities doing what they do best: criticize each other and the Congress government of pandering to communal forces or indulging in appeasement, depending on which side one was on.

The raison d’etre was the Bhagyalakshmi temple, abutting the 400-year-old Charminar, which had suddenly seen some construction activity to which the Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), the dominant party of the walled city, objected. MIM accused the Congress government of violating the October 30 directive of AP High Court, which sought status quo to be maintained with no further construction activity. With the mood getting belligerent on either side, Hyderabad’s old city area, with its cheek-by-jowl existence of Hindus and Muslims, experienced what was always feared but not openly expressed.  

The communal temperature showed no signs of abating even as devotees lined up to pray at the temple.

Realignment of forces
Asaduddin Owaisi, 43, the Lok Sabha MP from Hyderabad constituency, took the attack to the opposition camp when his party withdrew support to the Kiran Kumar Reddy-led Congress government, as well as the UPA coalition at the Centre. Though the Reddy government looks unstable, it is not likely to topple in near future. The rabble-rousing leader accused the state government of pandering to communal forces and victimising the Muslim community by arresting their youth and foisting false cases against them.

The break in relationship seems irrevocable, with the likely new partner being Jaganmohan Reddy, son of late chief minister and popular Congress leader Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR), and his YSR Congress party. There is time yet before a formal announcement is likely to be made in this regard, though it seems a logical outcome, if the pundits are to be believed.

Said to be India’s sixth largest city, Hyderabad has seen action on every level in the last decade or so. After Chandrababu Naidu’s nearly decade-long IT-heavy, CEO-style management, the Congress government of YSR indulged in realpolitick, including a cordial relationship with the MIM that worked well for both partners.

But YSR’s death in 2009 saw the equations change from a close, politically interdependent governance to a more formal one under K Rosaiah, who got the job thanks to his unwavering loyalty to the Nehru-Gandhi family. Kiran Kumar Reddy’s two-year tenure is yet to see any major flashpoints or signals that could indicate a chill in the relationship.

MIM’s steps in the right direction?
According to long-time observers of politics in Hyderabad, the communal riots and what followed from there on is a timely step in the right direction for MIM. The party has been opposed to the creation of Telangana in its present form, insisting that the neighbouring four districts of Rayalaseema be also merged with the proposed state to create a ‘Rayala-Telangana’.

Having seen swelling support in neighbouring Maharashtra during the Nanded municipal polls, where it increased its number of seats from one to 11, MIM is being seen as a party keen on emerging as a pan-Indian alternative.

The high-octane coverage of Asaduddin Owaisi’s support to Muslim refugee camps in Assam during the Bodo agitation in the state in June this year indicates the emergence of an alliance of likeminded Muslim parties, which could leverage its strength for better seat share with main political groups that depend on the minority community’s support across the nation.

Still, hate speeches and reinforced ghettoization of Muslims is not a technique which can reap dividends for the rabidly fundamental MIM, which has seen the community change for the better by moving out of cloistered premises, the youth taking up professional courses, expanding into new technology businesses and adding to the white-collar workforce in the IT sector — both in Hyderabad and outside.

A few dissenters, who dispute the theory that the communal upswing in Hyderabad was the handiwork of rival fundamentalist elements on either side, have a different take on why MIM took such a drastic step. Vaulting ambitions of its youth aside, MIM itself is seen to be on an expansionist phase when it sought for itself the 3-acre government land housing the not-for-profit Mahavir Hospital.

Operating on this land for nearly three decades, the hospital’s lease expired a few years ago and its renewal is under consideration by the government. But MIM stakes a claim on the same piece of land, alluding that the present chief minister was favourably disposed towards it, but subsequently backtracked.

New alignment against Congress?
The matter stands unresolved but this has sufficiently infuriated MIM, which has seen, rightly or wrongly, the increasing apathy of the state government in protecting the community and frequent flare-ups between Hindus and Muslims on various occasions over the last one year. The party has kept its channels open with YSR Congress, whose leader Jagan Reddy is remote-controlling everything from jail.

“It is a pragmatic switchover — from being a laggard to a genuine aspirant for a bigger share of the pie — for MIM party,” said R Dilip Kumar, a leading advocate and heading a popular mass communication college in the city. “The Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) will be the death knell for Congress in the 10 districts of Telangana and YSR Congress will dent them badly in the Seemandhra region, where MIM looks to expand its base and may manage to increase its seats,” he said.

But a civil society activist specialising in urban affairs pointed out another angle. “It is fundamentally a real estate-driven feud which has snowballed and taken on various hues – communal, power-politicking etc,” he said.

According to him, with sharp increase in realty business near the old city, the construction lobby is unhappy with local politicians’ bid to resist revision of land values, and the consequent rise in registration and stamp duties. This is resulting in revenue loss to the government and inhibiting a fair rationalisation of land value across the outskirts of Hyderabad, the activist pointed out.

For now, it now promises to be a fight to the finish on two fronts – the issue of a separate Telangana state and the emergence of YSR Congress as the next alternative – for the Congress, but it all looks to converge at some point in time, even as elections are eagerly awaited as scheduled in 2014 or even earlier.