All set for polls
Gujarat goes to polls on December 13 and 17 but along with Himachal Pradesh, the announcement came some two months earlier, creating a funny situation. Potential candidates spent more days in anxiety, while voters remained indifferent as they were busy with festivities —starting with Navratri, a month later Diwali, and a fortnight later Dev Diwali.

But now the process has started, as if it cannot be procrastinated any more. Major parties, a term which usually refers to the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress, are campaigning in full swing and the game we and truly on.

Random conversations with friends, neighbours, fellow bus travellers and others distilled in one paragraph: Narendra Modi is the default choice, BJP is sailing home, but don’t ask for numbers and Keshubhai

Patel can spring a surprise. People talk of development, but seem tired of the word. Then why vote for the BJP? Because they’d rather go along with the default choice than lose the vote on the Congress, which is in as bad shape as ever. Having a big boss with international profile does not hurt their pride either. Corruption – of the central and the state governments – is not much on agenda, nor is any debate on the corporate-centric economic growth, which is the norm here since Chimanbhai Patel in 1989.

 

The rebellion of 2012
As the two biggies announced candidates, both faced rebellion from within the ranks. (Reporters and editors of Gujarati newspapers seem to be addicted to Hindi news channels, so they call rebels ‘baagi neta’, which is not a Gujarati term. In fact, in recent years, Gujarati papers have been dishing out copies that read like poor translation from Hindi.) Even the mighty chief minister, Narendra Modi, has faced protests over selection of candidates in Surat and Vadodara.

Surprisingly, the Congress has faced more rebellion: for example, over the ticket to Narhari Amin, once a formidable young turk who led popular student agitation of Nav Nirman in 1975 and helped topple Chimanbhai Patel’s Congress government – only to become his deputy CM in 1989.

The Congress in Gujarat has not seen such spectacles, supporters gathering at Amin’s residence in Sardar Patel Colony of Naranpura in Ahmedabad and issuing threats of boycotting all 16 city seats.

Resigned to losing before Modi, they’d rather be good boys before the high command. The only explanation, observers say, is that they are smelling victory this time. Their olfactory sense may be suspicious, but you can’t ignore this observation.

Patel rap
Modi has led two assembly campaigns so far, and has preferred to field new faces instead of repeating sitting MLAs. The above-mentioned observers (usually a euphemism for the writer’s own take) used to say that this strategy delivers two things: it builds Brand Modi, in that people vote for Modi, not the candidate, and secondly no MLA develops arrogance. A party organisation cannot have too many arrogant leaders.

This time, Modi has surprised all (and pleasantly surprised sitting MLAs) by repeating 83 of them in the two lists at the time of writing.

Why? Once again, I would quote anonymous observers whose take is that the Patel factor is probably more potent than assumed so far. No wonder, this is the first poll in a decade where some name other than the one beginning with N is talked about.

Keshubapa, as he is fondly known among his supporters (among detractors, he used to be known as Keshiyo, which can sound like Casio, the brand), is 84 plus, clearly an aging warhorse. His base is restricted to the Leuva Patels in terms of community and parts of Saurashtra and Surat in terms of geography. The first opinion poll, published in India Today in November, gave his Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) just five seats. His rallies have seen uneven response: sometimes terrific numbers, in some places lacklustre show.

But if there is any threat to Modi for a comfortable majority, it might be from GPP. One, it has many BJP old-timers like Gordhan Jhadafiya (MoS Home at the time of riots) and former CM Suresh Mehta.

Two, unlike the Congress, it does not have corruption and ‘secularism’ and other issues to contend with. Three, Patels have this thing called pride and the biggest statue in the world, of Sardar Patel, that Modi is arranging at a cost of Rs 1,700 crore can’t do much to assuage them. The only trouble it has is that it does not have organisation, which is so crucial in the closing hours of polling.

If GPP manages to channelise the supposed discontent among Patels and farmers of Saurashtra, and wins 20 seats – an uphill task many consider impossible but were talking hypotheticals here – then the future history of India will be somewhat different. Modi could be in deep trouble.

Writings on the wall — and elsewhere
Travel to rural Gujarat and the first thing you notice is Modi photographs: behind every state transport (ST) bus and at every ST bus depot and at the entrance of the village. With the whole laundry list of welfare measures. With the code of conduct in place, rural Gujarat looks like it were 1990s. No parties have so far put up banners and hoarding outside the cities. But, yes, the election commission (EC) has arrived with its voter awareness campaign – from the entrance of the Kankariya lake of Ahmedabad to the deputy collector’s decrepit office at Chhota Udepur touching the Madhya Pradesh border. Hoardings tell new voters about how to register and remind old voters to vote.

The Congress has gone negative in its print and outdoor campaign. A black and white photo of a depressed young man or a poor farmer, with a long sentence describing his travails—something like ‘In Gujarat 10 lakh educated youngsters do not have a job’ or ’29 percent households do not get water’ with the word NOT highlighted.(One of the farmers in the picture turned out to be from Rajasthan.)  In short, the Congress has focused solely on Modi’s development discourse. There are, of course, no faces of any leaders: at Gujarat level, there are too many of them. At the national level, yes, there are two or three, but none of them apparently is inspiring. In print, the party is positive, promising subsidies housing and what not to one and all. It can afford to promise much more, since there’s little chance of victory.

For BJP, the publicity banks on its biggest brand, with one-line descriptions of what Gujarat has achieved – in the past 11 years of the BJP rule. Eleven years? Not counting a year or so under Shankarsinh Vaghela, the BJP has been ruling the state since 1995, and continuously for 14 years. But then in Gujarat, Modi is BJP and BJP is Modi.

GPP has hoardings too, but so small that you blink and miss them. They too have depressing photos and so on.