The climate crisis is no longer a peripheral debate but a central determinant of economic resilience, particularly for emerging economies like India. Much like a grandmaster sitting before a 64-square battlefield, policymakers and market actors are compelled to strategize in advance, balancing short-term sacrifices with long-term positioning. Climate economics, at its core, mirrors the complexity of chess: every move today alters the configuration of tomorrow’s possibilities, and a miscalculated gambit can leave nations cornered in a high-stakes global competition. India, as the world’s third-largest emitter yet also a leader in renewable innovation, stands at a pivotal juncture where each policy resembles a calculated chess move — one that could either secure an enduring positional advantage in the green economy or expose structural vulnerabilities in the decades ahead.

Opening Gambit: Seizing the Renewable Energy Centre
In chess, the opening is about controlling the centre to secure manoeuvrability. Analogously, India’s climate economy hinges on its ability to dominate the emerging landscape of renewable energy. With a current installed renewable capacity of 179 GW as of 2023, India has already achieved close to 43% of its power generation capacity from non-fossil sources, ahead of its Paris Agreement commitments (MNRE, 2024). Programs like the International Solar Alliance and the National Green Hydrogen Mission represent deliberate opening moves designed to shape the trajectory of both domestic energy security and international influence.

The logic is distinctly economic. Controlling the renewable “centre” translates into enhanced energy sovereignty, reduced current account deficits from fossil fuel imports (which stood at $158 billion in FY2022–23), and greater bargaining power in climate finance negotiations (PIB, 2024). Early investment in solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing and electrolyzer technology is akin to rapid development of key pieces — bishops and knights — creating flexibility for mid-game transitions.

Moreover, Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes channel industrial policy into establishing forward linkages between clean-tech production and employment multipliers, thereby embedding renewables as structural drivers of growth rather than peripheral experiments. Yet, the risk lies in overextending without consolidating. Just as reckless expansion in chess can invite tactical vulnerabilities, premature scaling without grid integration and storage infrastructure could destabilize India’s energy markets. The opening gambit is strong, but positional consolidation remains critical.

Middle Game: Balancing Tactical Sacrifices and Positional Economics
In chess, the middle game is characterised by tactical complexity, in which sacrifices frequently facilitate long-term advantages. In climate economics, India's middle game is about finding a balance between the need to reduce carbon emissions and the need to grow the economy. We can't just stop using coal right away because it still provides more than 70% of the electricity we use. This would cause job losses and budget problems. In this case, tactical sacrifices like incremental carbon taxes, subsidy rationalisation, or targeted phase-outs are planned concessions meant to keep the system from falling apart. 

This is a difficult task of dynamic optimisation with limits from an economic point of view. For example, phasing out inefficient thermal plants may slow GDP growth by a small amount (0.1–0.3% per year), but it will make India more credible in global capital markets, which will lower the cost of green bond issuances and bring in climate-aligned FDI (CEEW, 2025). At the same time, investments in EV infrastructure and biofuel blending mandates act like tactical skirmishes: they cost the government money now, but they will save money in the long run by reducing the need to import oil. 

India's middle-game strategy is also linked to geopolitical counterplay. The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is like a tax on imports that use a lot of carbon. It acts as a "check" on India's steel and aluminium exports. India is already getting ready for low-carbon industrial changes by using green hydrogen pilots and circular economy frameworks. They know what this opponent is going to do. This is prophylaxis in chess, which means doing something ahead of time to stop your opponent's moves. The middle game will decide if India keeps its early lead in renewable energy or gets stuck because of the protectionist climate policies of advanced economies.

Endgame: Net-Zero and the Efficiency of Scarce Resources
In chess, the endgame requires precision with limited resources. Similarly, India’s Net-Zero by 2070 commitment demands an economic strategy centred on maximizing efficiency under scarcity. By mid-century, fiscal space will be constrained, demographic dividends will taper, and the carbon budget will be significantly depleted. Thus, the economic instruments of the endgame must focus on carbon capture and storage (CCS), negative emissions technologies, and deep decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors like cement, steel, and aviation.

The economic jargon here is clear: India must transition from extensive growth models reliant on factor accumulation to intensive models driven by technological efficiency and endogenous innovation. Just as a player leverages pawn promotion to convert minimal resources into decisive advantage, India’s focus on green R&D and digital integration of energy markets could generate compounding productivity gains. Estimates suggest that a successful clean-energy transition could add $1 trillion to India’s GDP by 2030, but failure to adapt could shave 2–5% off annual GDP by 2050 due to climate-induced damages in agriculture, infrastructure, and health (MNRE, 2025; PIB, 2025).

Additionally, the “just transition” framework becomes crucial in the endgame. Over 21 million Indians are directly or indirectly employed in fossil-linked sectors; their reskilling and redeployment determine whether decarbonization culminates in a socially equitable checkmate or a destabilizing stalemate. Aligning state-level policies, fiscal transfers, and labour market reforms will ensure that India does not lose the social contract while chasing carbon neutrality.

The similarities between chess and climate economics are not just surface-level comparisons; they are real strategic comparisons. Each policy change in India's climate economy, from solar parks in Rajasthan to EV hubs in Tamil Nadu, is like a move on a huge chessboard where you need to be able to see the future, plan ahead, and be flexible. 

The first move in renewable investments has given India an edge; the second move, which is about making trade-offs, will test India's ability to deal with both domestic and global pressures; and the final move, which is about reaching net-zero, will require careful planning of resources, new ideas, and a fair transition. 

India's economic need is clear: plan ahead by several moves. No chess grandmaster tries to win with one reckless move, and no climate economy becomes sustainable with just one action. The hard part is staying patient, expecting counterplay, and turning today's sacrifices into tomorrow's systemic benefits. In the end, climate economics in India is a game of survival and strategy. The only way to win is not to checkmate your opponent, but to make sure the game goes on.

Naman Mishra is Doctoral Researcher, Bennett University, Greater Noida. Palakh Jain is Associate Professor, Bennett University, and Senior Visiting Fellow, Pahle India Foundation. 
Views are personal, and do not reflect the opinions of the organizations.