Mohammed Nasheed has alleged that he was forced to resign as president of Maldives at gun point resulting in the takeover by former vice president Waheed Hassan Manik.

The main question in everyones minds is why did India not intervene? This could be perhaps because the coup last week was not triggered by external forces. The streets of Male had been awash with protests for months now. What is worse is that the protests had a distinct radical Islamic undertone. Being a muslim majority country, Maldives could pose a significant threat to India if its land is used for launching terrorist attacks. Recent intelligence reports indicate the presence of Lashkar-e-Toiba elements on the island.

The fact that former president Abdul Gayoom’s men are using liquor bottles (allegedly found in the presidential house) to create a case against Nasheed is worrisome. Experts say radical Islamic thinking has crept into the minds of the Maldivian people.

But does this mean India was right in keeping out of the affairs of the Maldivian people?

According to Commodore Uday Bhaskar, “What is more important is the orientation of the government and the people of Maldives.” The former deputy director of the prestigious Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) said that Maldives had been showing radical tendencies since the SAARC summit in 2011. He added that “Islamic undertones were visible earlier but are erupting now in the form of protests.”

Asked if such a volatile scenario could affect India’s defensive posturing, Cmdr Bhaskar replied in the negative. “India cannot and should not interfere. This is a problem of the people of Maldives and they have to take a call,” he added.

Others took towed the same line and said that India should not go in and try to restore law and order. Instead it must exercise restraint and play a waiting game while not allowing China to gain a foothold in Maldives. It is a known fact that China wishes to incorporate Maldives in its ‘String of Pearls’ policy which is aimed at surrounding India. China has even made overtures towards Maldives in hopes of establishing a submarine base there.

“The government of India is correct,” summed up Pravin Sawhney, editor of Force magazine. “We are adopting a wait and watch policy which is the right thing to do. The big concern here is that Maldives is a small island and India and China may compete for influence in the near future.” He said that the government of India would be ready to help if the need arose. “Right now I don’t think we can or need to do anything,” Sawhney added.

Traditionally Maldives has been a country heavily dependent on India. The governments of both the countries signed a comprehensive trade agreement in 1981 and since the tiny island nation looks up to India to provide it with protection and act as a counter-balance to Sri Lanka.

India and Maldives have also had their share of territorial disputes which led to a maritime border agreement between the nations in 1976.   

In fact, during Rajiv Gandhi’s tenure in 1988, India thwarted a coup by People’s Liberation Organization of Tamil Ealam (PLOTE) mercenaries attempting to take over vital installations in Maldives. Around 80 mercenaries of the PLOTE made their way to Maldives in a boat and took over the main airfield. The then president of Maldives, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, requested India’s intervention. India immediately landed 1,600 troops in Maldives, secured the airfield, rounded up the mercenaries and restored control in a matter of hours. That incident would bring Maldives closer to India than ever.

In the following years, relations between the two neighbours reached an all time high. India provided Maldives with extensive aid and took part in bilateral programmes. India also helped Maldives in the areas of development of infrastructure, health, civil aviation, telecommunications and labour resources. India transferred a fast attack craft to Maldives so it could protect its waters. India has even brought the tiny island nation into its security grid and has established a listening post and radars on Maldives atolls to protect it. The country’s exports to Maldives in 2006 stood at a staggering Rs. 384 crore.

It is clear that India wants to tread carefully over the unrest in Maldives. With Maldives being in a strategic location and China waiting in the wings to grab a share of the pie, India is playing a waiting game.