Demonetisation will dampen growth: ADB

Slower growth is now expected in India, one of the largest economies

GN Bureau | December 13, 2016


#demonetisation   #Asian Development Outlook 2016 update report   #Asian Development Bank  
Asian Development Bank
Asian Development Bank

India’s surprise demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes will likely dampen growth this year, but South Asia remains the region’s fastest-growing sub-region, said the Asian Development Bank in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2016 update report.

Developing Asia’s growth outlook continues to be stable despite a slight downgrade, the report added.

The region is now expected to grow this year by 5.6 percent, or 0.1 percentage point off the rate envisaged in Asian Development Outlook update as slower growth is now expected in India, one of the region’s largest economies. Growth is expected to edge back up to 5.7 percent in 2017, the pace envisaged in the update. By sub-region, growth forecasts are revised slightly down for South Asia in 2016 and the Pacific in 2017 but otherwise unchanged.

The combined growth forecast for the major industrial economies — the United States, the euro area, and Japan — is revised up from update projections as third-quarter outcomes in the US and euro area proved to be stronger than expected. Robust consumer spending growth supported the US economy, while supportive monetary policy and improving labour markets fuelled growth in the euro area. Despite a stronger yen, the external sector still led the expansion in Japan.

Despite an extraordinary and temporary growth dip affecting one of the region’s largest economies, this supplement expects the region as a whole to expand by 5.6 percent in 2016, only 0.1 percentage points less than earlier forecast, and by 5.7 percent in 2017, as forecast.

China is on course to meet growth expectations of 6.6 percent in 2016 and 6.4 percent in 2017. East Asia as a whole is seen to expand by 5.8 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 2017 as growth stabilises in the sub-region in line with earlier forecasts.

India’s demonetisation will likely dampen growth this year, but South Asia remains the region’s fastest-growing sub-region. It is now expected to grow in 2016 by 6.6 percent, or 0.3 percentage points less than previously forecast, and in 2017 by 7.3 percent, as in the update.

Growth in the major Southeast Asian economies in the third quarter met projections and even surpassed them in Malaysia and the Philippines. In aggregate, the sub-region is still forecast to expand by 4.5 percent in 2016, picking up to 4.6 percent in 2017.

The continued rise in commodity prices has not sufficed to offset fiscal drag in the oil-producing economies of Central Asia. Forecasts in the Pacific are largely unchanged from the update, though cyclone damage in Fiji is seen to be having a bigger impact on its economy than earlier envisaged.

Although oil price prospects brightened with the agreement of major oil producers to cut production beginning in 2017, inflation remains subdued.

 

Comments

 

Other News

“Indians, yet treated like outsiders”

Moving to Delhi-NCR for education can be an exciting experience for students from Northeast India. It gives us a chance to meet new people, experience a different culture and become more independent. But living away from home also comes with challenges that people who have not experienced them may not al

Import duty on major edible oils cut

The government has reduced the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on major imported crude edible oils with a view to moderating domestic edible oil prices, providing relief to consumers and mitigating inflationary pressures arising from the sharp increase in international edible oil prices.  

From pyramid to platform: BRICS agenda for Global South

In his opening address at the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi on September 12, prime minister Narendra Modi did something India`s diplomacy has been building towards for three years: he moved the ‘Voice of the Global South’ from a slogan to a work plan. Addressing the leaders, he argued that t

How to realise the full transformative potential of PM-JAY

The Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY), a welfare scheme which covers approximately 45 crore beneficiaries across India, provides cashless health cover of Rs. 5 lakh per family per year. It is the largest health insurance scheme which helped crores of poor families by reducing out-of-pocket expend

The missing men in India`s family planning story

Every pregnancy requires two people. Yet India`s family planning programme continues to ask only one of them to bear almost all of its medical consequences. The newly released National Family Health Survey-6 (2023-24) confirms just how entrenched this asymmetry remains: 36.5% of currently married women a

`Development must be judged beyond GDP, with rights and justice at core`

Delivering the IXth Chief Justice M.C. Chagla Memorial Lecture on ‘Human Rights and Sustainable Development Goals’, in Mumbai Friday,  former Chief Justice of India Bhushan R. Gavai questioned whether conventional economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), national income,

Upcoming Conferences



-->

Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter