•Bail to Jagan gives immense relief to YSRCongress Party (YSRCP). But for those keenly following Andhra Pradesh politics recently, it comes on expected lines. On the legal front, Jagan was due for bail since the CBI exceeded the time-frame set by the Supreme Court to complete the disproportionate assets case probe.

•On the political front, it’s not just Jagan’s men who were eagerly waiting for Jagan to step back into political limelight. Jagan stepping out of the jail will also work wonders for the Congress, in the long run and in many ways.

•On the face of it, one can expect Jagan is certain to remain as the focal point for the media and the political circles in the next few weeks. For the YSRCP, Jagan’s arrest on May 27th last year dealt a big blow. It came just at the same time the party was being prepared to spread its tentacles to the grassroots levels.

•After 16 months, even his release wouldn’t have come at a more opportune time for the party. The Seemandhra regions resemble a cauldron for 60 days in the face of the bifurcation unrest.

•While the Congress and the TDP are receiving bouquets in Telangana and brickbats in the Seemandhra, it’s the YSRCP that is relatively sitting pretty in Seemandhra. But the only glitch for it in the last 60 days is a guiding force that can help the party garner all the Samaikhyandhra mileage.

•Jagan missing the scene because of his imprisonment was glaringly evident. His mother Vijayalakshmi and sister Sharmila have been making valiant efforts to fill the vacuum. But they failed to fill his shoes as the only leader who can galvanise the party and prepare it for the 2014 elections.

•Now, Jagan coming out of jail will keep the party in high spirits. It also gives something to cheer about for the embattled people. There is an overriding perception in the two regions that politicians were responsible for the bifurcation decision. The anger is palpable in the wave of ongoing agitations which are clearly devoid of any political leadership.

•Sonia Gandhi is the most loathed in the regions. People are also disillusioned with Chandrababu Naidu’s double-crossing game plan. He nodded first in favour of a separate Telangana and is now touring the Seemandhra regions to sympathise with the people on the other side.

•This is the perhaps the best time for Jagan to jump into the aggrieved regions and cash in on the emotionally-surcharged mood. The Kadapa MP has already proved himself umpteen times that he is simply unstoppable when it comes to reaching out to the people.

•In less than two years of YSRCP’s existence before his arrest, Jagan proved to be a big crowd-puller, something that amply reflected in a few by polls. As a so-called victim of vindictive politics, he now has sympathy to add to the X factor.

•But here comes the big question. One needs to recollect the factors that spelt doom for him and led to his arrest in 2012. It’s the mighty Congress, at least from the public perspective.

•As soon as Jagan broke ranks from the Congress and floated his own YSRCP in 2011, Jagan received notices from Income Tax. The young MP and his family subsequently became the target for a flurry of proceedings initiated by various government controlled agencies.

•Cases by CBI and the ED led to his eventual arrest in May 2012. Interestingly, it was a Congress leader P Shankar Rao who first approached the Andhra Pradesh High Court seeking probe into his assets.

•The controversial leader was later rewarded with a cabinet berth in the Kiran Kumar Reddy government before he was ousted unceremoniously. While the AP High Court took suo moto cognizance of the leader’s letter, it was a group of TDP senior leaders led by the late Yerran Naidu impleaded itself in the case. It only speeded up the proceedings against Jagan.

•It was then widely perceived as the coming together of both the Congress and the TDP to cut a fast-burgeoning Jagan to size. When the courts repeatedly rejected Jagan’s bail pleas, it was perceived to work in the favour of these two parties.

•The reasons for these two parties were simple. The Congress suffered a huge blow in the tragic death of YS Rajasekhara Reddy. Jagan floating his own outfit only weakened the party further. Somewhat similar was the case of the TDP.

•Having received two successive electoral drubbings in 2004 and 2009, the TDP was dented further by the emergence of Jagan’s party. In 2004, YSR ended the TDP rule with a statewide padayatra. And in 2009, the party’s grand hopes of returning to power went for a toss because of Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party. Though what the Chiru party showed was mere pedestrian, the TDP was made to realize how the PRP eroded seriously into its vote base, thus upsetting its applecart.

•The TDP could only ill-afford yet another party eating into its base of cadre and leaders. So, it was widely perceived that the longer Jagan stays in jail, the better it would be for the Congress and the TDP to keep their political prospects alive.

WHAT WOULD BE THE SCENE NOW?

•Jagan’s release will almost come like the other side of the coin in the Andhra Pradesh politics.

•Much water has flowed down the bridge between the time Jagan was incarcerated and released on bail after 16 months.

•The Congress had to fulfil its long-pending commitment on the vexed Telangana issue on July 30th. The fear that siding with any one side on the issue would jeopardize the party on the other side had the Congress dilly-dally for more than a decade. It was the same predicament for other political parties with serious interests on both the sides.

•What bolstered the Congress party then to take such a bold decision in favour of Telangana, even risking its prospects in the Seemandhra regions?

•Well, the answer lies in the hindsight. The speculation doing the rounds is that the Congress party is approaching the 2014 elections with a clear and deep-rooted strategy. The party knows the weight in gold of the LS seats from Andhra Pradesh in its mission to anoint Rahul Gandhi as the next prime minister.

•It is speculated that the Congress anticipated the release of Jagan well in advance and so it timed its most difficult decision for Telangana around the same time. On the face of it, the Congress will be the sore loser in the Seemandhra region. Not let too far behind is the Telugu Desam Party.

•Recent surveys by independent bodies have suggested that the Jagan-led YSRCP would be able to gobble up 10 to 15 seats out of the 22 Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra. The TDP will is projected to be a distant second with around 6 seats.

•According to political analysts, the Congress party, even in the likely scenario of a humiliating drubbing, will end up smiling. The party has been sending quiet feelers of bringing Jaganmohan Reddy’s party into its fold for quite some time. In its aim to garner maximum electoral mileage from Andhra Pradesh, the party would also not mind beckoning the TRS into its fold. This way, the party would end up with the numbers of the TRS in Telangana, YSRCP’s seats in Seemandhra and its own if it manages to win a few.

•If this eventually proves to be the case, then it’s going to be a typical Congress masterstroke. It would be two-birds at one shot, in fact. The grand-old party, with vast expertise in dealing any crisis, would shore up its numbers to prop up Rahul Gandhi’s PM campaign. On the other hand, it would deliver a deathly blow to the TDP, the only potent threat so far for the Congress in the state.

•But will Jagan and co. fall in line? There are many reasons to give the answer in the affirmative. Firstly, the party would be happier to sail with a non-BJP combine, be it at the state or at the Centre, in order to keep its minority vote base.

•Jagan and his mother Vijayalakshmi had already dropped enough hints on this line of action. Even after Jagan’s arrest, Vijayalakshmi stated in some interviews that their party would not be averse to considering supporting a Congress-led alliance at the Centre, if that emerges as the only viable option.

•Also, if the rumours of a tacit Congress-YSRCP understanding for Jagan’s bail were to be believed, this would naturally be the reciprocal measure left for the YSRCP.

•Even considering that Jagan could throw a spanner in the Congress party’s plans somewhere along the line, here are a few factors. The Congress can continue to use the DA case to have its stranglehold on Jagan. Besides the DA case, there is a more dreaded enemy staring Jagan in the face that is the case by the Directorate of Enforcement.

•Cases registered by the ED are believed to be more stringent and leave no room for escape.

In a nutshell, the likely Jagan fallout on the AP politics is as follows: On the face of it, it’s Advantage YSRCP, Disadvantage TDP. But it would be the Congress that will have the last laugh!!!