Expected revenue loss for companies: $5 trillion!

Covid-19: Fitch Ratings expect recovery to be slow and halting

GN Bureau | June 10, 2020


#Covid-19   #Coronavirus   #economy   #corporate sector   #energy   #oil and gas  
(Illustration: Ashish Asthana)
(Illustration: Ashish Asthana)

 The corporate sector around the world is expected to suffer losses in revenue worth USD 5 trillion, according to a report prepared by Fitch Ratings. 

 
“The most stringent period of lockdown is over for many jurisdictions, signalling the start of a challenging period of reopening,” Fitch Ratings said in a release issued in London Tuesday. It has published a sector-by-sector analysis of its assumptions for the road to recovery, for more than 80 corporate sectors and sub-sectors globally.
 
“Our projected revenue-recovery curves for corporate sectors, using our baseline scenario, confirm a slow and halting recovery process for many sectors. Our recovery narratives suggest revenue destruction of more than USD5 trillion in 2020, compared to the USD26 trillion of revenue reported by our corporate portfolio in 2019, extending to more than USD8.5 trillion of revenue destruction by end-2021,” the release said. “This estimate only covers our corporate rated portfolio, which in turn represents USD14 trillion of the estimated USD74 trillion corporate debt globally.”
 
The oil and gas sector accounts for the most revenue destruction in dollar terms, representing 40% of the aggregate revenue fall, it said. While the oil price has recovered from historic lows, pricing is still well inside Fitch’s price-deck estimates and it expects economic sentiment to remain subdued after the initial post-lockdown euphoria dissipates.
 
It projects a decline in car sales of about 20% globally in 2020 (followed by a recovery of around 15% in 2021), making the automotive segment – a critical element of the global manufacturing base – the second-largest revenue victim after oil and gas, albeit by a large distance. Further downside revision is possible if demand for big-ticket items weakens further, the release added.
 
The most severe relative declines for any sector occur in the leisure and transport sectors, Fitch said, projecting for it revenue losses of 40%-60% in 2020. Although the underlying segments account for a relatively minor share (just 3%) of the aggregated global corporate revenue in the Fitch portfolio, they have a disproportionate contribution to employment in the wider economy. 
 
The report also identifies a range of sectors and sub-sectors that Fitch expects to prove resilient post-lockdown, including telecoms and individual segments within technology, healthcare and even retail.
 
“The range of region-specific variations we analyse in our report do not meaningfully change the shape of the global recovery curve, with all regions generally adhering to a global pattern of a slow recovery from a traumatic 1H20,” it said.
 
More detail on the regional distinctions and the full narrative for all 87 sector curves are included in the report ‘The Road Back: Post-Lockdown Assumptions for Global Corporates’, available at fitchratings.com.
 

Comments

 

Other News

Politicians trade charges as Covid breaks previous records in Maharashtra

A political war erupted between the centre and Maharashtra over supply of essentials including medicines and oxygen as the state struggles to control the raging Covid-19 amidst scarce health infrastructure. Maharashtra has seen a consistent rise in Covid infections and recorded 67,123 new c

Remdesivir procured at high prices to save lives: BMC

Countering the opposition BJP’s allegations of corruption in the procurement of Remdesivir, a critical anti-viral injection often prescribed for Covid-19 patients, the BrihanMumbai municipal corporation (BMC) has clarified that its decision to procure the drug was aimed at saving  lives even if

“Not appropriate to postpone Class XII CBSE exams”

Criticizing the postponement of the CBSE Class XII exams in the wake of the second Covid -19 wave across the country, Nupur Sharma, BJP national spokesperson, has said the decision will jeopardize the future of students. Despite the pandemic she said no college or university will be ready to give them prov

Govt announces strategic collaboration to empower Atal Tinkering Lab schools

Atal Innovation Mission, NITI Aayog and All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE), and Ministry of Education’s Innovation Cell has announced their strategic collaboration which aims to empower Atal Tinkering Lab school (ATLs) students for world-class future-ready

Agriculture Min signs MoU with Microsoft to develop smart interface for farmers

Union Ministry of Agriculture and Microsoft India has inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for a pilot project in 100 villages of six states to develop farmer interface for smart and well-organized agriculture, including post-harvest management and distribution. The pilot

NIXI inaugurates new initiatives to improve IPV6 adoption

Ajay Prakash Sawhney, Secretary Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology (MeitY) & Chairman NIXI has inaugurated three initiatives of the National Internet Exchange of India (NIXI). With this launch, NIXI has announced to play a supporting role for the IPv6 aw

Visionary talk series with Nupur Sharma, National Spokesperson, BJP



Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook    Twitter    Google Plus    Linkedin    Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter