The election commission is stumped with Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati's double googly to prevent it from advancing to February-March the assembly elections in the state despite the house term ending only on May 20.

First came the supreme court's stay two days ago on the municipal elections on December 18, directing the state election commission to notify the election dates on February 18 after the electoral rolls are revised. The UP government had challenged the Allahabad high court order fixing the elections on December 18.

The same election machinery conducts both the assembly and the municipal elections and as such it became impractical for the election commission to declare the assembly polls in February as it would appear to be in defiance of the supreme court directive for the municipal polls that cannot be held of the assembly election process is on.

The second googly came on Wednesday when the Uttar Pradesh Board of Secondary Education announced the examinations from March 1 to April 4 and practical examinations earlier from mid-January to mid-February. It makes difficult for the EC to start the polls in February as it would disturb the students' preparations for exams and a spread-over to one or two rounds in March is ruled out as teachers busy with exams will not be spared for the poll duties.

EYE ON RAJYA SABHA: Mayawati is trying to set the record of completing her full term that none in the recent years have achieved as she points out that the 2007 elections too were held from April 7 to May 8 and hence why not this time. She officially wrote to the Election Commission that there is no reason to advance the elections.

Ten seats from UP are among 58 falling vacant in the Rajya Sabha on April 2 and as such she will get the advantage to send maximum numbers to the house by virtue of the BSP's thumping majority in the current assembly. The BSP already has 18 members in the Rajya Sabha, five of whom are retiring on April 2.

Sources in the EC, however, insist that at no stage it had decided to hold the elections in February-March as the schedule of polls is still under preparation and all factors will be taken into account, particularly exams, while finalising the poll dates.

HOME MINISTRY BLAMED: They blame the home ministry for unofficially leaking out the possibility of polls in February-March on the basis of a tentative programme given to it for securing availability of the security forces. They say that slot may not be available now since it clashes with the municipal elections as well as the examinations.

The earliest the EC can draw up the programme is in the first or second week of January as no action is possible before the publication of the final electoral rolls on January 5. Time will be too short thereafter to complete the polls, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, which may have polls in six to eight phases, depending on the availability of the central forces, the sources said.

All the same, the EC staff on Thursday carried out an informal exercise of declaring the election programme on January 6 as it usually takes 10 to 12 days to issue the formal poll notification after the programme is announced to bring the code of conduct for parties and government in force.

"There has to be a gap of at least five weeks between the notification and the actual polling and as such earliest the Assembly polls can begin in Uttar Pradesh is by mid-February and they cannot be finished off in less than a fortnight even if we cut down the phases to say five or six as we will have to keep a gap of minimum four days between each phase to enable the central forces' movement and positioning in the constituencies," a source involved in the academic exercise said.

OTHER STATES: He said there is no problem in case of Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur as their assemblies' term ends mid-March and the polls can be conducted any time between mid-February and first week of March. However, their counting will get delayed if the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections requiring polls in many phases are clubbed with them.

As regards the Goa assembly elections, the source said there is not much problem in holding the elections either in February, March or in April, May since its Assembly term is up to June 14. "We have, however, not taken any decision on Goa either," the source added.