Phailin might have turned out to be tamer than the 1999 ‘super cyclone’ and the Odisha government is, rightly, collecting kudos for its commendable evacuation effort and keeping the casualties minimum, but chief minister Naveen Patnaik’s luck may just begin to turn for the worse if he fails to handle the fallout of the cyclone.

What’s also at stake is Patnaik’s ability to return to power for a record fourth time in the next assembly elections: it all depends on relief and restoration work in the wake of Phailin. The stars seemed to be on his side as the intensity and force of the cyclone weakened by landfall on the Odisha coast and the causalities were much less than expected. But it does not take long for the stars to change their position in the world of Indian politics.

On the issue of post-disaster relief work, one must not forget that the 1999 super cyclone had brought Patnaik to power due largely to the mishandling of relief and restoration work by the Girdhar Gomang-led Congress government.

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No doubt the government was adequately prepared for the disaster and evacuation of the affected was executed systematically but revenue and disaster management minister Surya Narayan Patro's boast to Governance Now – that the government was prepared for any kind of eventuality – might come back to haunt the state government. Unless the administration is able to do a better job of flood management in northern Odisha in the wake of the storm.

Already there is a crisis in Balasore, Mayurbhanj and Bhadrak districts, where floodwaters from the swelling Subernarekha and Budha Balanga have inundated large areas and thousands are at the mercy of the elements. While preparing for the cyclonic winds in the southern and eastern coast, the government seems totally unprepared to deal with the floods that have followed: it has wreaked havoc in the rice bowl of the state, causing 28 casualties, damaging property and standing crop worth crores of rupees.

Meteorological department authorities said they had issued express warning to the government about flooding in north Odisha due to heavy rain in upper catchment areas after Phailin moved to Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, but the government was ostensibly unprepared for the disaster.

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What lies ahead for the BJD government is a daunting task. The power infrastructure in the state, particularly in south and coastal districts, has been hit badly. The challenges of rehabilitating thousands and restoring roads and power systems destroyed by Phailin are compounded with floods in four districts in north Odisha. Already, poor handling of relief and lack of preparedness is fuelling anger and anguish among the people.

As the state administration announced time and again before Cyclone Phailin that it was prepared to handle even a crisis situation like that of 1999 without any difficulty, the failure to respond adequately to the current crisis may cost Patnaik dear.

First salvo fired

Congress MLA and leader of opposition Bhupinder Singh has lost no time in landing the first shot. He has already blamed the state government for not anticipating the extent of the damage and failing to tackle the situation properly despite advance notice. He has also pointed out that in 1999, the then Congress government in the state had depended on warning systems of the US Navy, which he claimed had failed to predict the intensity of the super cyclone. The BJD government, Singh said, is repeating the mistake.

Stressing that the 1999 super cyclone had remained in force for 36 hours while Phailin had moved on by six hours, Singh said the Naveen patnaik government has fallen short of requirements despite possessing all facilities to deal with the cyclone and advance warnings issued by the IMD. The administration concentrated on Phailin but ignored the warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall, which caused massive flooding elsewhere.

Giving all credit to the IMD for his “very accurate” predictions that helped save the situation in the state, the Congress leader said, “This is not the time to indulge in politics and may good sense prevail on the Naveen Patnaik government.”

In the same breath, however, he “regretted” that despite getting all possible help from the central government, the state is resorting to its “timeworn tactic” of blaming the UPA government.    

Experience falls short

Over the last 14 years since the super cyclone, the Patnaik government has gathered enough experience to handle natural calamities. It had, in fact, set up the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority (OSDMA) soon after assuming charge primarily to address situations like these.

As warnings of Phailin came this time, the chief minister asked the central government for assistance in deploying armed forces along the coast of Odisha to overcome infrastructure snags that would have occurred, and did occur, during the cyclone. According to observers, the state’s requisition for helicopters, positioning of sophisticated boats, NDRF personnel, among others, was carried out.

To create public awareness, the state administration issued warnings at short intervals, stating that Phailin would make landfall at Gopalpur in Ganjam district. People, according to most observers, had the impression that the state government was fully prepared to meet the disaster. But the manner in which post-cyclone restoration work is taking place has created an altogether different impression about the state administration.   

Though the magnitude of Phailin was less than half of the 1999 super cyclone, particularly in the state capital Bhubaneswar, restoration of power supply was on at snail’s pace: it took more than 24 hours to provide power to even 20 to 30 percent areas of the state capital. Despite deployment of government administration, NDRF and private players, Central Electricity Supply Unit (CESU) could restore power only to VIP areas.

In fact, power supply was not restored for even next-door neighbours of chief minister Naveen Patnaik. Power was still to be restored in most localities of Bhubaneswar even 72 hours after the cyclone.

The challenge is a few notches higher in Patnaik’s home district, Ganjam, which was hit worst by Phailin: due to the magnitude of devastation, the power system has to be virtually built up from scratch. State energy secretary Pradeep Kumar Jena admitted that it will take at least 10 days to restore power supply in the silk city of Berhampur alone.

According to government estimate, it will take at least one month to restore electricity supply in Ganjam district alone.

According to officials, high-tension and low-tension lines and grid sub-stations have been completely damaged in Ganjam, Gajapati, Nayagarh and Daspalla. Revenue and disaster management minister Surya Narayan Patro said restoration work will take time as 48 132-KV poles have been completely wiped out in Ganjam district and 220 KV lines have been completely damaged in Narendrapur. New poles have to be put up and power supply restored – and it will all take time, Patro said.

Besides power, Berhampur, the most important town in Ganjam district, now faces acute shortage of potable water as well. Earlier, trainloads of potable water came from neighbhouring Andhra Pradesh to mitigate the drinking water shortage in the area. And that decade-long problem has been compounded by devastation wrought by Phailin. Patro, meanwhile, claimed that potable water was being supplied under the rural water supply scheme (RWSS) from Purshottampur and Dakhinapur reservoir till power supply is restored.

Post-Phailin, the state administration also has to look at the severe flood situation in Mayurbhanj and Balasore districts, which has affected 1.2 crore people.

Meanwhile, minister Patro said the CM has requested prime minister Manmohan Singh to send a technical team and direct the Power Grid Corporation of India, National Thermal Power Corporation and National Hydro Power Corporation Limited to help restore power in the state. The government had earlier claimed that it was fully prepared to meet any eventuality while claiming that the Congress government in 1999 did not have any experience in tackling such situations.

But the real test for the Naveen Patnaik government, and his Biju Janata Dal, comes only now: success or lack of it in meeting the post-disaster crisis could well make or mar it for the suave CM.