As a nation, Pakistan is a curious case. Right from its birth it has been springing one surprise after another. The army overthrows the democratic government, then democracy limps back, then another coup takes place, Pakistan has seen the pendulum swinging all the time during the 64 years of its precarious existence.

As the next-door neighbor, India remains more than concerned about the situation in Pakistan, as it too has paid the price of instability in Islamabad.

The nation is tottering once again. The elected government and the army are on a warpath. Prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on Wednesday sacked defence secreatary Lt Gen (retd) Khalid Naeem Lodhi, taking a step closer to a showdown. [Read: Def Secy flouted rules; no threat to democracy: Gilani]

Will there be a coup, as many fear? Will the civilian government hold on, as it has asserted? How should India read the situation? We spoke to several retired diplomats and experts and asked what the worst case scenario is and what the most possible scenario is. Here are their responses:

Breakup not ruled out
Bharat Verma, security analyst

There is total anarchy in Pakistan and it will only grow in the current confrontation between the civilian government and the army. The implication is that a breakup of Pakistan is imminent from my point of understanding. The differences between the army personnel from Punjab and Sindh provinces have increased and that will be a setback for them. In Balochistan area, the chaotic scenario will strengthen the rebellion, which will lead to independence of this province.

Also, I don’t believe any breakup of Pakistan is bad for India. In case Pakistan dismembers, Balochistan and Sindh provinces will favour India and develop good ties. Pakistani Punjab province will be left out where the jihad factory will grow. There will be more chaos in Punjab province.

Adversarial impact on India
Ashok K Behuria, research fellow, IDSA

The situation is very complex. Everybody – military plus government plus legal – wants one’s own pie in the crisis. However, in this situation the chief justice of supreme court, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury, holds the key to Pakistan’s stability. He can spring some surprise.

In the last few days former PM Nawaz Sharif has been sending a positive signal that he is not untouchable to the army. There have been several meetings between Shahbaz Sharif, former CM of Punjab province, and army chief General Kayani. The new signal from the Sharif family is to counter Imran Khan’s sudden rise.

The army chief and the ISI chief are working to protect their chairs. However, the possibility is that the government can call an early Senate election to test the political waters. The army may also tell the civilian government that it has lost the mandate and call for early general elections.

But the worst scenario I can see will be the growing (clout of) religious (militant) outfits in the country like JuD which will run amok. Actually, they thrive on the uncertainties in the country. It will have destabilising effects on Afghanistan and an adversarial impact on India.

Another Kargil in the making?
MPN Menon, former diplomat

The crisis in Pakistan is very unpredictable. There are three poles: army, civilian government and supreme court. And there is a fight among these three poles. At least, a coup is not the possibility because the military ruler will face hurdles from an active supreme court. So, army is a little hesitant to do what Pervez Musharraf and other generals did in the past. But as in the history of the country, army will never become subservient to the civilian rule. In the current case, army will take some time to bypass the situation.

It is a matter of concern for India because if there is unpredictability in Pakistan, the army will venture into a Kargil-like mission to divert the attention of the local population. And this way they will defend the weaknesses of the existing condition. But dealing with army is very different. They take strong position while the civilian government at least listens.

No coup, but Gilani could be replaced
KP Fabian, former diplomat

There is a mistaken notion that the civilian government is in control of Pakistan, it is the army. I also doubt there would be a coup in Pakistan because it will have major repercussions in the country. The common man, supreme court and civil society groups will vehemently oppose any takeover by army. If there is a coup, then support from the United States cannot be taken for granted. There will be pressure from Commonwealth countries too.

The worst case scenario is that PM Yousuf Raza Gilani will be replaced by someone who is more amenable to the army brass. There is another scenario that there might be early general elections and in that case Imran Khan is most likely to win the elections. President Zardari’s days are also numbered.

India will have to keep talking to Pakistan on regular basis. The choreographed approach of just talking is wrong because it leads to nowhere. But in the current scenario, the immediate implication is that India will not get more information from Pakistan on the 26/11 case.

Economy is in shambles
Nihar Ranjan Das, ICRIER

Pakistan’s economy is in bad shape and it will further worsen if the current crisis stretches on. There is not much investment happening in Pakistan. The only worthwhile investment is done by China, that too for its own strategic interests.

In the current mess, it will be very difficult for army to work with the new defence secretary Nargis Sethi. In fact, they have refused to cooperate with them. A coup is not possible because of different pressure groups in the country.

But if a coup happens and General Kayani takes over, he will not be able to follow anti-India sentiments any more than he does right now.

Also read: 'Not another coup, please': Pakistani media tells army