India as well as countries in the Himalayan river basins - China, Bangladesh and Nepal will suffer huge depletion in water availability on per capita cubic metre basis, says a report.

“India is going to face per capita decline from 1730 to 1240, while in China water availability will decline from 2150 to 1860, from 7320 to 5700 in case of Bangladesh and for Nepal it is estimated from 8500 to 5500 by the year 2030,” said the report released on Monday in Singapore.

The study titled 'The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia' prepared by the Mumbai based think tank – Strategic Foresight Group was released at the Singapore International Water Week during the Asia Pacific Water Ministers Conference.

By 2030, the report predicts that India, China, Nepal and Bangladesh combined together will face depletion of almost 275 billion cubic metres (BCM) of annual renewable water. “Water balance will shrink almost half to 200-260 BCM in India while in China the figure will turn to 50-100 BCM in 2030,” the report said. 

The report mentioned that agriculture sector was going to be a major casualty due to decline of water availability. The farmers of the Himalayan river basin countries use same river for their agriculture purpose. “In India, agriculture accounts for almost 90 percent of the water usage but this will decline to 70-75 percent by 2050,” adding that China too suffer the decline in huge proportion. According to report, “The agriculture sector in China consumes 65 percent of water and is set to decline to 55 percent by 2030.”

The report said this is going to affect the food security in India and China (both the countries are largest producers and consumers of food) due to water scarcity, glacial melting, and soil erosion. “Both India and China will face drop in the yield of wheat and rice anywhere between 30-50 percent by 2050. Around the same time, the demand for the food grains will go up by 20 percent driving India and China to import more than 200-300 million tones of wheat and rice, which will eventually lead to increase of international price of these commodities,” the report added.

The Himalayan river basins are home to around 1.3 billion people comprising 20 percent of the world’s population and almost 50 percent of the total population of these countries. The study prepared by the experts of all four countries noted that the Yellow river in China and the Ganges will be most affected by glacial melting and might turn into seasonal rivers by the second half of the century.

The Yangtze and Brahmaputra too will be affected due to glacial melting. According to report, “Both the rivers will lose about 7 percent to 14 percent of the annual flow due to depletion of glaciers.” The shrinking rivers will cause the disappearances of many lakes.

The report further stated that in addition to depletion of water resources due to natural reasons, it will not be possible to use the available water resources because of pollution and losses caused by inefficient management.

The report also warned that water scarcity level would lead to tension among countries in the Himalayan river basin. Relations between India and China, India and Nepal, India and Bangladesh may become strained and forge new equations in form of ‘beggar thy neighbour’ politics. India will only be at the receiving end.