Ahead of the upcoming elections in Bihar, the state has re-emerged at the forefront of India’s political landscape, where the stakes are as high as the expectations. Political parties are outbidding one another with grand visions of development for a state that was once the cradle of Indian civilization, political power, prosperity and intellectual flourishing. Today, however, Bihar grapples with chronic underdevelopment, mass out-migration, and a persistent dearth of economic opportunities. Despite some progress in literacy, healthcare, and basic infrastructure, these gains are uneven—and far from adequate. Above all, the most pressing and persistent challenge is the failure to generate employment—especially for women and youth, exposing deep structural flaws in Bihar’s development trajectory.

A Demographic Opportunity, Squandered
At a time when India is celebrated globally for its youthful population and demographic potential, Bihar’s underperformance casts a long shadow. As global experts have long cautioned, the demographic dividend is not automatic; it must be enabled through sustained investments in education, skill-building, public health, and job creation. Bihar, however, finds itself in a precarious position: rich in demographic potential, but poor in institutional readiness to harness it. As a result, the state is not merely missing an opportunity—it is holding back the momentum of India’s larger developmental journey.

Paradoxically, Bihar possesses many of the right ingredients for economic growth. This is particularly troubling because Bihar, demographically speaking, should be at an advantage. Fertility rates are declining, life expectancy is improving, and education, especially among girls, is gradually increasing. Unlike the southern states, which are already confronting the challenges of an ageing population, Bihar still has a youth-dominated demographic profile. Yet, without parallel investments in economic and social infrastructure, these advantages risk being wasted.

Demographer David Bloom has warned that while most Indian states will begin losing their demographic dividend by 2031 and India as a whole by 2036, Bihar's window will open only around 2026—and will last for just a decade. This is the shortest window among the Indian states. It raises the stakes: Bihar must accomplish in 10 years what others had decades to achieve. This limited timeframe increases the urgency for strategic and inclusive development planning. Unlike the southern states, which had decades to leverage their demographic windows through strong public investment in human capital, Bihar must achieve similar outcomes in half the time. 

This calls for a targeted development strategy that places people, especially women and youth, at the centre of planning. If Bihar fails to invest now in job creation, vocational training, quality public education, and robust healthcare systems, its youthful population could become a development burden rather than a demographic asset. 

The Employment Crisis: Promises vs. Performance
Recently, the Bihar government announced that it aims to create one crore jobs by 2030 under the ‘Saat Nishchay’ (Seven Resolves) programme. However, this lofty promise appears deeply unrealistic and risks being reduced to yet another political slogan, rather than a serious employment roadmap, in the absence of credible pathways to industrialization, private investment, or skill development. The most significant failure of the Nitish Kumar-led government over the past two decades has been its inability to generate sufficient employment opportunities, especially for the youth.

The reality is stark. Bihar’s economy lacks a strong manufacturing and services base. In fact, during 2017–18, Bihar’s Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) fell to an all-time low of 26%, among the lowest in the world at that time. While the PLFS 2023–24 shows a slight recovery, raising the LFPR to 34.5% overall (35% in rural areas and 31% in urban areas), it still remains one of the lowest in India and far below the national average. This reflects a serious mismatch between the state’s population and the availability of meaningful jobs. 

Moreover, over 54% of the workforce is still engaged in agriculture, while only 5.2% are in manufacturing, 18.2% in construction, and 10.2 % in trade and 3.7% in transport—sectors that are largely low-paying and labour-intensive. These figures indicate that Bihar’s workforce remains trapped in precarious and informal forms of employment, with very limited access to formal or high-value-added sectors. What is particularly troubling is that between 2018 and 2024, most of the increase in employment came from the primary sector, particularly agriculture, while the secondary and tertiary sectors, which are typically associated with industrial growth, services, and urbanization, saw decline. This trajectory is not only unsustainable but also regressive.

The Missing Gender Dividend
One of the most pressing yet under-discussed issues in Bihar is the pervasive invisibility of women in political, economic, and social spheres. Despite a sharp decline in fertility rates and significant gains in girls’ education—both typically seen as enabling conditions for women's empowerment—women in Bihar remain largely excluded from the state’s development trajectory. As Dr. B.R. Ambedkar once said, “If you want to measure the progress of a nation, look at the progress of its women.” Bihar, by that measure, continues to lag behind.

Education and employment are twin pillars of human development: each critical for enhancing productivity and empowerment. Bihar has made laudable progress in expanding access to girls’ education, but this has failed to convert into meaningful economic participation. In 2017-18, only 2.5% of women in Bihar were in the labour market. While this figure has recently climbed to around 20%, it remains far below the national average. At first glance, this rise might appear encouraging. However, this increase is not the result of economic expansion or job creation—it reflects a crisis of opportunity. 

A closer examination reveals that this growth is primarily poverty-driven and concentrated in low-paying, informal, and manual agricultural work in rural areas. For instance, the PLFS 2023–24 data reveals that only 7.9% of women in Bihar are employed in the secondary sector and 10% in the tertiary sector, compared to the national averages of 16% and 20% respectively. 

This trajectory runs counter to Claudia Goldin’s celebrated U-shaped hypothesis, which links rising development to a rebound in women’s workforce participation—typically in formal, tertiary-sector jobs. Instead of tapping into the potential of its educated female population, Bihar is squandering a once-in-a-generation opportunity to harness its gender dividend. This failure to tap into the capabilities of its educated women is not just a gender injustice—it’s a development disaster. A demographic dividend without a gender dividend is, ultimately, an illusion.

A State on the Edge
Bihar stands at a decisive moment. Despite repeated commitments to development, the SDG India Index places the state among the bottom five across most indicators. This gap between promise and performance can no longer be ignored. The focus must shift to job creation, industry, quality education, skill development, and opportunities for youth and women. 

These are not optional goals—they are essential for harnessing Bihar’s demographic potential. The window of opportunity is closing fast. If Bihar fails to act now, it risks not only squandering its demographic potential but also becoming a drag on India’s broader development journey.  

Dr. Balhasan Ali is an Assistant Professor at the School of Public Policy and Governance, TISS Hyderabad. The views expressed are personal.