On February 2 at around 10 PM, Sergio Gor, who had become US ambassador to India just three weeks ago, posted a cryptic message on his official handle on X, stating, “President Trump just spoke with Prime Minister Modi. STAY TUNED….” This created a buzz across media in India as the two leaders are known for their nationalistic stand. They appear to have retained personal chemistry they share, even though there was a moment when Trump mocked Modi and called India as “tariff king” and its economy as a dead economy.   

However, the veil over what transpired between them during their telephonic talks was lifted by the Indian PM himself at around 10.20 PM the same day, when he wrote on his social media handle: “Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement.”

This major climb-down on tariff, from 50% to 18%, caught India’s diplomatic circle off guard. The US says it has rescinded 25% reciprocal as well as punitive 25% tariffs on India. It was never anticipated from Trump in view of his regular outpouring of anti-India diatribes and undertaking those measures which hurt New Delhi’s interests. 

For instance, besides imposing steep high tariffs on Indian imports, he threatened slapping penalties on US companies that manufacture in India. He tightened visa rules around the H-1B visa programme and hosted Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir in the White House for a lunch a few days after India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025.

Yet the truth is: Trump’s announcement came days after India and the European Union signed the Free Trade Agreement, which is called “the mother of all deals”. “It will significantly enhance bilateral trade and investment ties, drive shared prosperity, strengthen resilient and diversified supply chains, and support sustainable and inclusive growth,” said the India-EU joint statement issued after the 16th India-EU summit on January 27.

Why India handles Trump’s announcement cautiously 
Trump, who feels he can compel compliance through disruption, said he took the decision to reduce tariffs on India after New Delhi agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, and “buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.” He also said that India has agreed to purchase $500 billion worth of US energy, agriculture, coal and other products under the trade deal. 

Yet the fact on the ground is something else; commerce minister Piyush Goyal said India-US trade deal has not been finalized, instead, it is in the final stage of detailing between the negotiating teams of the two sides. He also said that agriculture and dairy are sectors under protection. 

In the midst of cacophony over the trade deal, the ministry of external affairs has not issued any comment regarding Trump’s announcement, except for reposting the message of the PM about his telephonic conversation with the US president. 

Nor has external affairs minister Dr. S. Jaishankar, who was on a three-day visit to Washington DC (from February 2 to 4) to participate in the critical mineral ministerial meeting, said anything in response to Trump’s announcement. Posting a message on his official social media handle he said, “Delighted to meet US@SecRubio. A wide-ranging conversation that covered our bilateral cooperation agenda, regional and global issues. Facets of India-US Strategic Partnership discussed included trade, energy, nuclear, defence, critical minerals and technology. Agreed on the early meetings of various mechanisms to advance our shared interests.”

Clearly, India is maintaining caution while dealing with the US under the Trump administration. Embarrassment caused to the Modi government by the US president over India-Pakistan four-day conflict last year continues to haunt New Delhi. In May 2025, minutes before India had announced ceasefire with Pakistan during ‘Operation Sindoor,’ the US president had announced on his social media handle ‘Truth Social’ that he had stopped the war between the two neighbours.

It generated a furor among diplomatic, political and strategic circles of India with opposition targeting the government for stopping military action against Pakistan under pressure from the US. India fervidly issued ‘clarification’ on the issue. Even Modi told the Parliament in July 2025 that India’s decisive action under ‘Operation Sindoor’ forced Pakistan to its knees. He also clarified that no global leader objected to India’s operations. Given this background, India wants to tread cautiously on Trump’s announcement that he has reduced tariffs on India to 18% after it has stopped buying oil from Russia. 

Has India stopped buying Russian oil?
India has neither stopped purchasing Russian oil nor has it committed to do so in the near future. This is apparent in the PM’s social media message as well as facts on the ground. Although, it is true that in the first three weeks of January 2026, India’s crude oil import from Russia has declined to around 1.1 million barrels per day, from an average of 1.21 million barrels per day in December 2025 or over 2 million barrels per day in mid-2025, as per data from real-time analytics company Kpler. 

“India clearly is decreasing its level of imports of Russian oil. However, I think we noticed that Prime Minister Modi did not repeat the pledge that President Trump made that India would completely halt Russian oil imports,” Lisa Curtis, director of the Centre for New American Security, said. Russia too has denied receiving any message from India about stopping Russian oil purchases. “So far, we have not heard any statements from New Delhi on this matter,” AFP quoted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying. Rather, he said Russia intends to continue to develop its relations with India in every possible way.

Obviously, whatever Trump said in the context of Russian oil, India has discreetly signalled that it will not sacrifice its strategic autonomy on issues that have direct links with the country’s national interest. India has also indicated that if the deal with the US is concluded, it will purchase $100 billion worth of US products annually for five years and these products will largely include oil, nuclear products, aircraft, technology and precious metals.

Commerce minister Goyal said a trade deal with the US will lead to opening new markets in labour-intensive sectors such as textile, gems & jewellery, auto components, engineering goods, and other MSME sectors.

Conclusion
While there is jubilation over the coming India-US trade deal, even if it is still thin on details, analysts say it is hard to expect that warmth in relations between two big democracies will be back so soon. 

More than 20 years of hard work between the two countries to make their relations strong and rock solid were damaged by Trump with a fit of presidential pride and pique in the last eight-nine months of his re-entry in the White House. 

A reset in the bilateral ties depends on the US’s action in coming weeks and days on the trade front, which is although still higher in tariffs in comparison to Japan, South Korea and the EU. They enjoy 15% tariffs on their exports to the American market. However, analysts say India will still be happy to engage with the US, but with caution, patience and a clear-eyed focus on national interest rather than being swayed by headline diplomacy.