When Europe and West Asia in particular are deep in fear about Donald Trump because he as the 47th US president is expected to bring a significant shift in the geopolitics of the world with his policies and strategies, India is looking forward with optimism to work closely with him and infuse more dynamism into New Delhi and Washington DC’s relationship.

This sense of confidence pervades through external affairs minister S Jaishankar’s statement who, without any hesitation, said, “I know today a lot of countries are nervous about the US, let us be honest about it. We are not one of them.” He was speaking at a programme in Mumbai on Sunday.

Earlier, on November 6, prime minister Narendra Modi became the first international leader to congratulate Trump on his victory by posting a message on X and just next day, the two leaders had a telephonic talk. It speaks highly of their personal rapport and their desire to carry forward the momentum they created in India-US relations during January 2017-January 2021.

Obviously, under the forthcoming Trump administration, India will try to gain a new thrust in ties with the US, which under president Joe Biden somewhat faced strains on crucial political, diplomatic, and strategic fronts, including Jammu and Kashmir.      

Strain in India-US ties under Biden administration
In the last week of March 2024, the US embassy in India hosted an iftar party for Kashmiri activists even while knowing about their critical stand on the abrogation of Article 370. This development took place a few months after India took strong exception to the American ambassador to Pakistan, Donald Blome’s six-day visit to Gilgit-Baltistan.

In the middle of parliamentary elections in India this year, the Biden administration began hitting New Delhi left and right on issues ranging from human rights to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act to the arrest of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal.

In September, just two days ahead of Modi’s three-day visit to the US for the Quad summit in Biden’s hometown at Delaware in Wilmington, high-level meetings on the sidelines of the summit and UN General Assembly address in New York, the White House hosted pro-Khalistan activists. The incident signalled the Biden administration’s unflinching support to the Khalistani agenda.

The US has not yet shared details about the attackers of the Indian Consulate in San Francisco on March 19 and July 2, 2023. Nor has it taken any action against India-designated terrorist and US-Canadian citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun who uses social media tools to threaten PM Modi and Indian interests. Of course, the US has admitted that regarding the alleged foiled assassination plot against Pannun, it continues to have “valuable engagement” with India in terms of exchange of information on the issue between the two countries.

Tension on geopolitical front
On the geopolitical front, even as South Asia was struggling with the situation emerging from president Biden’s sudden move to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, Washington DC’s decision to offer $450 million to Pakistan for the modernisation of its F-16 fleet, reminded its earlier action of arming Islamabad against New Delhi and unsettling peace and stability in the region.

Then the US left no stone unturned in exerting pressure on India on the Ukraine war. New Delhi’s neutrality on the Ukraine war has not been taken well by the Biden administration despite the fact that India has repeatedly expressed its concern over the humanitarian crisis due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and its resolution through dialogue and diplomacy.

Instead, the US, in its recent step to target India, has imposed sanctions on 19 Indian entities for supplying parts and goods to Russia. The move has created a ripple in India with MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stating that “the sanctioned transactions and companies are not in violation of Indian laws.”

However, India hopes to see a new phase on the geopolitical front under the Trump leadership. First of all, it wishes to win Russia away from China, the East Asian country which wants the Ukraine war to prolong in order to exhaust the West of its energy and resources so that it can no longer be able to focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

Trump, during his first term in the White House, did try to relieve Moscow of the octopus grip of Beijing, but he, as per experts like ambassador Anil Trigunayat, did not get support from the US deep state to do so.

Indications are that Trump, who has refused to accommodate Mike Pompeo, the former US secretary of state, and Nikkei Halley, the former US ambassador to the UN, in his team in the second presidential term, will try to resolve the Ukraine-Russia war in the first few months of his entry into the White House.

If it happens, India will find it worthwhile to fix the problem that it faces in enhancing its influence inside plurilateral forums like BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where China with tacit assistance from Russia is dominating the show.

India-US defence partnership
Notwithstanding the friction in India-US ties, president Biden did allow the defence partnership to grow between the two countries. He did not get in the way of the transformative partnership that the two countries’ defence relations experienced during Trump’s term from January 2017 to January 2021.

In fact, soon after Trump entered the White House, the US elevated its defence relationship with India to a major defence partnership (MDP). On July 30, 2018, India was moved into the Tier-1 of the US Department of Commerce’s Strategic Trade Authorisation licence exception. On September 6, 2018, India and the US held the first ministerial level two-plus-two dialogue, marking a new chapter in the strategic partnership of the two countries.

To provide the framework for interaction and cooperation between armed forces of the two countries, India and the US signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement in August 2016 (reinforced during Trump’s term), Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement in 2018, Memorandum of Intent for Defence Innovation Cooperation in 2018, Industrial Security Agreement in 2019 and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement in 2020.  

It was also during Trump’s regime India witnessed a surge in the purchase of cutting-edge defence technologies from the US. Deal for the purchase of 31 MQ-9B drones was signed in July 2020; agreement for 24 MH-60R Seahawk helicopters was signed in April 2019; a formal request for the purchase of Apache AH-64E helicopters and Chinook CH-47F heavy-lift helicopters was made in September 2015, but finalised during Trump’s term; a formal request for the purchase of Integrated Air Defence Weapon System (IADWS) was also made in February 2020.

Under the Biden presidency, India-US defence relations saw the two countries advancing the priority of joint collaboration in the production of jet engines, munitions, ground mobility systems, unmanned surface vehicle systems (to strengthen undersea and maritime domain awareness.

The two countries also concluded the Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) with the aim to enhance the mutual supply of defence goods and service. Moreover, under the Biden presidency, the US, India, Japan, and Australia-led Quad was strengthened by raising its level from ministerial to leadership level, making it a global force for good.
 
Similarly, under the INDUS X initiative, efforts are on to bring defence startups of the two countries together. It aims to spur the ongoing defence cooperation between India and the US in coming years.

Technological partnership under Biden regime   
India sealed an agreement on iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology) with the US in January 2023. It is considered a milestone achievement of India-US relationship under the Biden administration as it has enabled the country in deepening and expanding strategic cooperation across key technology sectors such as AI, quantum technology, space, semiconductors, biotech, cyber and advanced telecommunications.

Micron Technology Inc has announced investing up to $825 million to build a new semiconductor assembly and test facility in India. Lam Research Corporation, a California-based supplier of wafer-fabrication equipment and related service provider, has proposed to train 60,000 Indian engineers to accelerate India’s semiconductor education and workforce development goals.

Applied Materials Inc, a US-based equipment supplier firm, provides services and software for the manufacture of semiconductors chips, has announced investing $400 million to set up a collaborative engineering centre in India. GlobalFoundries (GF), a New York-based semiconductor manufacturer is developing GF Kolkata Power Centre in Kolkata to help facilitate resilient, secure, and sustainable semiconductor supply chains.

India-US trade ties
India-US two-way trade witnessed upswing from 2014 onwards. In the past 10 years, India’s trade with the US nearly doubled – from $61.5 billion in 2014 to $118.3 billion in 2024, making America India’s second largest trading partner after China.

Although during Trump’s presidential term, India’s exports to the US saw 22% growth, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows, under president Biden India’s exports to the US jumped 51% in the first three years. Data for 2024-25 is not available.

Conclusion
However, given a sharp change in international geopolitics, India is expected to see expansion and growth in its relationship with the US under the Trump administration in its second term. But it will not be a cakewalk for New Delhi on every issue. It will have to undertake tough negotiation with the US over trade and immigration. Yet, the forthcoming four-year of the Trump administration will prove to be a golden period for India on many fronts, including science and technology, defence, and space, say experts.