Is economic growth a winning factor in polls?

GN Bureau | March 6, 2012



Economic growth is always touted as a government's most significant achievment. But are incumbents really able to ride the GDP wave? Columnist Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar forwarded a theory (based on a Economic Times study) recently that holds that 63 percent of incumbents in the last decade were voted back to power because of high economic growth during their tenure.

Punjab seems to upheld the theory this assembly elections while Uttar Pradesh clearly debunks it. Both the incumbent Akali Dal-BJP government in Punjab and Bahujan Samaj Party government in Uttar Pradesh had delivered better growth than the previous governments. But while SAD-BJP seems set to have the mandate's backing, BSP stands a distant second in UP.

Can we safely say that a high GDP will ensure winnability or are there other factors that influence votes? Post your thoughts.

 

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