It is likely that India and China may not repeat, in 2011, the robust growth they have had this year, says a United Nations study.

“The year 2010 has seen an impressive recovery of the region’s economies led by the large economies of China and India. But the region is faced with a weakening of growth in the developed economies that affect the pace of recovery,” says the year-end Update Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2010 published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

The sluggish South Asian export scene could also slow down the Indian tiger's charge. “Export growth rate in South Asia is slowing down and the region, India in particular, is exposed to volatile capital flows,” said Dr Nagesh Kumar, chief economist of ESCAP.

China and India will grow, with a forecast growth of 9.0 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively in 2011, followed by Indonesia, with growth forecast at 6.5 per cent, the report mentioned. However, India’s revised rate released early this month shows stand at 8.75 pc in the quarter ending March, 2011. So, in effect,  the ESCAP survey just portends a slight drop from India's own estimate.

“Both India and China led Asia’s recovery from the global slump in 2008 due to which Asian economies averaged growth of 8.3 percent in 2010, but it could fall to 7 percent in 2011 from 8.3 per cent in 2010,” according to the report.

“The Asia-Pacific region has recovered strongly from the severe 2008-2009 recession… However, it is not yet out of the woods and new challenges have emerged that could adversely affect its performance in 2011,” notes Kumar.

The report indicted food inflation as worrisome, given the weightage given to food in household expenses of the poor in the region.

It cites the weakening growth rate in Europe and the United States as the reason for the dip in the South Asian estimates. “That primarily links up with the slowing down of recovery in U.S. and Europe and that is affecting the growth rate in the Asia, Pacific,” Dr Kumar added.

The study suggested that countries should go for increased spending on poverty alleviation, on physical and social infrastructure, promotion of agriculture and rural development to boost domestic demand within the region and sustain the economic dynamism seen in 2010.

Read the report