Monsoon delayed, leaves India yearning for rain

With the prediction of a week’s delay by the met department, monsoon in Kerala is likely to arrive on June 7

GN Bureau | May 17, 2016

#Kerala   #IMD   #monsoon  

It’s the third week of May and there is still no respite from drought, heat wave and soaring temperature, nor is it likely to be in the coming weeks if the met department is to be believed. For as per IMD’s predictions, monsoons in Kerala would be delayed by a week from its earlier scheduled date of June 1.

The delay of rainfall in Kerala is significant as the southwest monsoon over the southern region hints at arrival of monsoon in others parts of the country as well.

The India Meteorological Department [IMD] forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala has been made with a model error of plus or minus of four days. The model uses six predictors: minimum temperatures over north-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation [OLR] over South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian ocean, and OLR over the south-west Pacific region. Reports quoted an IMD official as saying that out of the six predictors used in the model, five indicated delayed monsoon over Kerala.

The department further said that conditions were becoming favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Nicobar Islands, south Andaman Sea and parts of south Bay of Bengal on around May 17 and advancement over the entire Andaman Sea close to its normal date. It, however, added that past data suggested of no link between dates of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with those of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country.

IMD said that its forecast of onset of monsoon for the past 11 years (2005-2015), except 2015, have been correct. To give an example, it said that in 2014, the onset date was predicted at June 5 while monsoon arrived on June 6. Similarly, the previous year (2013), IMD predicted monsoon on June 3 while the rains arrived on June 1.



Other News

Governance Now journalists win award for best TB reporting

Governance Now on Thursday bagged the REACH Media Awards for 2017-2018 for best reporting (English category) on tuberculosis (TB) at an event co-hosted by REACH, USAID and Lilly Global Health in partnership with the Lancet Commission on Tuberculosis. Our cover story

Simple facts about Special Status states

N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) on Friday parted ways from the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the centre. The official quitting of the alliance was preceded by the pulling out of two ministers out of the Narendra Modi government, a week ago. The

Peak performance

What is Narendra Modi’s biggest electoral success during the current term as prime minister? At first blush, most would say the Uttar Pradesh victory. That would be looking at the obvious (UP is the heart of the Hindi heartland) and at mere numbers (it has the maximum Lok Sabha seats). Yes, it was a

On a dangerous tangent

The killing of a seven-year-old boy at Ryan International School, Gurgaon, suddenly brought focus on violence by students in school. It was a gruesome case indeed: On September 8 last year, Barun Chandra Thakur dropped his children, including seven-year-old Pradyuman, at school around 8 am. By the time he

Juvenile crime and punishment

Like our jails, our correction centres for juvenile offenders are hardly conducive to bringing about positive change. No one will dispute the fact that an underaged criminal, especially if he or she is a first-timer, needs to be given a chance to reform, however heinous the crime. Unfortunately, society&rs

If you’re happy and you know it...

Finland has emerged as the world’s happiest country, as per the World Happiness Report 2018. The report has ranked 156 countries by their happiness levels, and 117 countries by the happiness of their immigrants. This year, the main focus of the report is on migration within and between countries.

Current Issue

Current Issue


CM Nitish’s convoy attacked in Buxar


Facebook    Twitter    Google Plus    Linkedin    Subscribe Newsletter