The congress is gearing up to defeat any no-confidence motion that the opposition may bring in the Lok Sabha in the coming monsoon session from July 26, as the UPA-II government is 13 votes short of the half mark in the house to be able to sail through.
Concerned over the main opposition Bhartiya Janata party (BJP) and the left parties coming together to organise an nationwide bandh over the fuel price hike, the Congress core group meeting last week worked out a strategy to overcome the possibility of a similar gang-up in the house.
As part of the strategy, a team of the party leaders have been briefed to get in touch with Orissa chief minister Navin Patnaik whose Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has 14 members in the house, former Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalitha whose AIADMK has 9 members as well as the smaller parties, to ensure that the government musters enough numbers to ward off any threat from a no-confidence motion.
Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee and health minister Ghulam Nabi Azad are coordinating contacts with various parties. Mukherjee is reported to have dropped hints to the MPs of both BJD and AIADMK who keep calling on him for work. This is the sixth time that 'Pranab da' will be using his kingmaker skills to save UPA-II.
The Congress has 208 members in the Lok Sabha while its ruling allies have another 51 (Trinamul Congress 19, DMK 18, NCP 9, NC 3 and Muslim League 2). The party sources said though the government has the support of Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Ajit Singh, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Lalu Prasad and some other smaller parties to form a majority, yet the leadership felt that these were slippery allies and hence the effort to gather all possible additional support to meet any eventuality.
The urgency to muster up support is also in view of the BJP and Left wanting to capitalise on the price rise issue. The Congress sources said the government has to prepare to meet any attempt by the BJP to imitate the drama that the Congress itself enacted in the Karnataka assembly.
The sources also said that, according to the core group, the party must work out a long-term strategy of floor management in the lok sabha for the rest of the government's innings, not just a temporary arrangement for the monsoon session.
As part of the strategy, the Congress leaders have started establishing contact with leaders and MPs of BJD and AIADMK. However, this is being done in their personal capacity, to ensure the exercise does not send the wrong signal of the government's weakness.
The AIADMK cannot openly support the government because its rival DMK is one of the ruling allies. The Congress leaders are suggesting that its MPs can stage a walkout and abstain at the time of voting as that would show them protesting and yet helping the government escape any possible defeat. A similar proposal has been sounded to Navin Patnaik, the sources said.
These two parties together have 23 MPs and the government will be in the safe zone if they do not vote for the no-confidence motion. The situation will be still on the edge and hence the Congress leadership wants to maximise the support of all possible small parties for the sake of safety.
The small parties on which the Congress is counting include RLD and RJD alongwith JD-7 (3 MPs), JMM (2), and a single-member parties like Haryana Janhit Congress of Bhajan Lal, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha of Babulal Marandi, Sikkim Democratic Front, Kerala Congres, Swabhimani Paksha of Raju Shetty, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi of Baliram Jadhav and VCK.
Sources said that Jayalalitha and Patnaik, who were approached through their MPs, did not negate the proposal. A senior minister reported back to the Congress president that Jayalalitha sees the proposal as a signal to get closer to the Congress.