FM's "real picture" of economy unaffected by monthly figures

Pranab Mukherjee downplays low industrial output in December

PTI | February 11, 2011



While expressing disappointment at the low 1.6 per cent industrial output growth during December, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said monthly numbers do not reflect correct picture of the economy.

"IIP numbers are very unfortunate and it is disappointing but it was on expected lines as it was on yearly basis," Mukherjee told reporters here.

Industrial production, measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), slowed to a 20 month low of 1.6 per cent in December, from 2.7 per cent in November 2010.

"Monthly and weekly numbers do not reflect correct picture. Therefore you shall have to take the whole year into account. Let us see how it reflects in the annual picture," the Finance Minister added.

IIP expansion in December declined to 1.6 per cent, from 18 per cent in the same month last year. The growth was also low at 2.7 per cent in November.

However, the industrial output expansion was in double digit in April, May, July and October months of 2010-11.

The growth in the April-December period was at 8.6 per cent, unchanged over the year ago period.

The advance estimates by Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has estimated the country's economic growth for the current financial year at 8.6 per cent, as against 8 per cent a year ago.

RELATED STORY
IIP fluctuation not to hit over 8.5 pc GDP projection: Montek

Sticking to its projection of over 8.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal, the Planning Commission today said monthly variations in industrial output numbers should not be a cause of concern.

Growth in industrial output, as measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), slowed to 1.6 per cent in December, 2010, the lowest pace of expansion in the last 20 months.

"Month-to-month variation in IIP should not occupy us too much," Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia told reporters on the sidelines of an Indo-US Economic summit.

He said, "This high frequency IIP data is not necessarily an indication of an underlying trend."

IIP expansion declined to 1.6 per cent in December, 2010, from 18 per cent in the same month of the previous year. The growth was also low at 2.7 per cent in November.

However, industrial output grew in double digits in April, May, July and October, 2010.

"In the current year, the Planning Commission has said that GDP will grow at 8.5 per cent or maybe a little higher.

That prediction remains," Ahluwalia added.

Asked about the impact of a slowdown in industrial growth on economic expansion this fiscal, he said, "In order to achieve 8.5 GDP growth, 8 per cent industrial growth for the whole year (2010-11) is enough."

Despite low growth in two consecutive months, industrial production expansion during the April-December, 2010, period stood at 8.6 per cent.

The government has estimated economic growth for the current financial year at 8.6 per cent, as against 8 per cent a year ago.

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