Professor Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti, a research programme of the New Delhi-based think-tank Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and one of our leading ‘election watchers’, maintains that we must not read too much in the higher voting numbers and credits the election commission for preparing more accurate voter rolls. Excerpts from an interview with Trithesh Nandan:

What do you make of the phenomenon of higher turnouts?

Everybody is excited about the higher voter turnout in the assembly elections. But if you look at the trend of turnout of 24 assembly elections in the last one decade, except for the five assembly elections, every election witnessed a high turnout – in some elections, higher by nine or 10 percent. The trend started 10 years ago. I see a continuation of that trend.

What is the explanation for more people turning up to vote?

There is not one but several factors. We should not minimise the role of political parties in mobilising voters. If parties perceive a close fight in an election, they also work overnight to get people (to) come out of home and vote. However, one should not get confused about higher turnout as an indication of voters’ greater interest in elections now compared to the past. There is not much change in voters’ interest in elections. There is no decline in it either; it is almost the same.

But a big factor is better management by the election commission (EC) – largely the cleaning up of electoral rolls, especially in the urban areas. In the metros, electoral rolls used to have a large number of ghost voters – names of many people that shouldn’t have been there. It was largely because they would have moved out of city, or moved from one locality to another, or would have died, and the names still exist on the electoral rolls. So the EC has in the last five years made a lot of efforts to clean the electoral roles. That has led to a huge increase in turnout.
If you weed out the names of ghost voters, it automatically increases the turnout.

Women have also come out in large numbers and voted...

As I said, we should not minimise the role of political parties in mobilising voters. Earlier, the gap between the voting figures for men and women used to be around 15 percent but that has reduced now – especially during the last two or three years, women are voting in big numbers.

Has the voting trend reached a plateau? Any guess for the 2014 elections?

There would certainly be a higher turnout in the 2014 general elections compared to 2009. We need to look at different states. All the states in the Northeast witnessed turnouts in the high 70s (percent). Having 80 percent turnout in those states is not a big thing. In Mizoram, voting turnout (in fact) came down by 1 percent.

Also read: Towards 21st century agenda for people's politics

In the Lok Sabha (elections) there is a huge possibility of turnout going up. It has been around the late 50s (percent) in the last two elections, and I expect it to go up by at least 7 percent – in percentage terms, at least in the mid- or late-60s. In many states, there is still a possibility of turnout going up, for example in UP and Bihar. However, we see the trend changing in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where it has gone up by 10 percent.

Any chance of 85-90 percent voting anywhere?

That would be too difficult. Even the election commission doesn’t expect it to go so high.

Does a higher voter turnout make elected representatives pay more attention to their constituencies?

I don’t see any connection between higher voting figures and legislators or MPs being more accountable to people or to parliament, or even taking their work more seriously. If they get the message that voters are coming out in large numbers, politicians might take a more active role in terms of mobilisation.

Will increasing turnout force parties to give more say to elected representatives?

I would again see no connection between voter turnout and elected representatives. There are a few factors why people turn up to vote. First, they think it is their duty, and they think this is the most important political right and that they must exercise it. So that is what motivates voters to vote. Sometimes added to it is people’s anguish, anger against the government; at times there is preference for a political party.

We have seen this happening in several elections. If we look at the 1977 Lok Sabha elections, it was anger against the government. The same happened in 1989 – anger against the government and VP Singh’s crusade against corruption.

In the latest Delhi assembly election, it is a mix of both. Many people who are in their mid-40s but have never voted so far came out to vote this time because they were angry with the ruling party due to price rise, corruption etc. They also see a change in the style of politics when a new party comes into play. So several factors resulted in the high turnout.

Do you think parties will now change their strategies in engaging with voters?

Certainly, if not the legislators then political parties would try and carefully rethink about the campaign and how to get in touch with voters through social media or the traditional mode of connection. Political parties need to think very carefully now.

Do you think Indian democracy is getting deepened? What does this trend mean for the polity?

The higher turnout does not indicate a deepening of democracy. Yes, it indicates that people are excited to go to polling stations. The election commission also took massive measures to clean voter rolls and strike off bogus voters.

The political parties also took an active role in campaigning. Deepening of democracy happens with all other factors, not just with this factor.

What about youth factor and social media contributing to this trend?

Social media...yes, to some extent in a city like Delhi but not in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. We also don’t see a clear-cut pattern of more youths coming to vote in this election than in previous elections. But we see higher participation of youth compared to past elections. So there is a connection. Social media has started playing some trend – it goes more closely with the youth than any other age group – but there is no clear pattern of its contribution in voter mobilisation in all the states.

Will the swelling voting numbers break caste politics?

Caste has been a tool in voter mobilisation not only in recent times but also in states across India. Go to any state (and you will find) there is caste-based mobilisation and caste-based voting. There is no connection between an increasing turnout and low mobilisation on the basis of caste or religion.