Industrial growth target may be revisited: PMEAC chief

Finance ministry may go in for a formal revision in the overall growth projections

PTI | September 12, 2011



Industrial growth projections for the current fiscal will have to be revisited in the wake of "disappointing" pace of expansion in the factory output, which plunged in July to 3.3 per cent, chairman of prime minister's economic advisory council C Rangarajan said on Monday.

"As regards the estimate of industrial production for the year as a whole, we will have to revisit the area after one or two months," PMEAC chairman said, after release of India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP).

The dismal factory output growth was on the back of a poor performance by manufacturing, mining and capital goods segments. In fact, the capital goods sector saw a big decline of 15.2 per cent,reflecting eroding investor confidence.

Industrial growth was 9.9 per cent in the corresponding month of 2010 and 8.8 per cent in June this year. The data is disappointing on the two scales, year-on-year and the sequential basis.

For the cumulative April-July, 2011-12 as well, the drop in growth is sharp at 5.8 per cent as against 9.7 per cent a year ago.

"It is a disappointing number. One had expected that industrial production will be slightly higher than this," Rangarajan said.

In its Economic Outlook, the PMEAC had projected industry to grow by 7.1 per cent in the current fiscal. The Indian government, in February had pegged it at 8.6 per cent.

The IIP had grown by 7.8 per cent in 2010-11.

Rangarajan, however, hoped that the industry would put up a better show in the second half of the year.

"At the present moment perhaps the numbers are not encouraging... but if the industrial production does better in the second half, then the overall growth rate may be higher. I will say that we will have to revisit the area after one or two months," he said.

Asked if IIP slowdown may prompt a re-think on the GDP target as well, he said: "While industrial production does not appear to be encouraging and maybe lower than what we had originally expected, agriculture may do better.

"And the services sector may still do well and exports are doing well. Therefore, the revision in terms of the GDP growth rate will have to taken in the context of the developments in agriculture, industry and services," Rangarajan said.

Finance ministry may go in for a formal revision in the overall growth projections for the year in the backdrop of the recent global developments and rising cost of borrowing and raw material.

The PMEAC has projected GDP to grow by 8.2 per cent this fiscal.

Comments

 

Other News

AI: Code, Control, Conquer

India today stands at a critical juncture in the area of artificial intelligence. While the country is among the fastest adopters of AI in the world, it remains heavily reliant on technologies developed elsewhere. This paradox, experts warn, cannot persist if India seeks technological sovereignty.

RBI pauses to assess inflation risks, policy transmission

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has begun the new fiscal year with a calibrated pause, keeping the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent in its April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The decision, taken unanimously, reflects a shift from aggressive policy action to cautious observation after a signi

New pathways for tourism growth

Traditionally, India’s tourism policy has been based on three main components: the number of visitors, building tourist attractions and providing facilities for tourists. Due to the increase in climate-related issues and environmental destruction that occurred over previous years, policymakers have b

Is the US a superpower anymore?

On April 8, hours after warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight,” US president Donald Trump, exhibiting his unique style of retreating from high-voltage brinkmanship, announced that he agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The weekend talks in Islamabad have failed and the futur

Machines communicate, humans connect

There is a moment every event professional knows—the kind that arrives without warning, usually an hour before the curtain rises. Months of meticulous planning are in place. And then comes the call: “We’ll also need a projector. For the slides.”   No email

Why India is entering a ‘stagflation lite’ phase

India’s macroeconomic narrative is quietly shifting—from a rare “Goldilocks” equilibrium of stable growth and contained inflation to a more fragile phase where external shocks are beginning to dominate domestic policy outcomes. The numbers still look reassuring at first glance: GDP


Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter