Consolidating in BJP’s strongholds may remain a challenge
Ashish Mehta | May 15, 2018 | New Delhi
BJP is leading in Karnataka elections. This once again proves that prime minister Narendra Modi’s popularity is intact, despite many signals and arguments to the contrary. Karnataka is one of the few places where the Congress has deep roots and thus provided a good opportunity to its new president, Rahul Gandhi, to prove his mettle. He has, however, failed to match Modi here.
Karnataka was not an easy win for Modi, as it is not only a state where the Congress has substantial resonance but also because the BJP’s prior term with BS Yeddyurappa as chief minister was mired in controversies. The BJP victory here is overwhelmingly a mandate only for Modi.
This should mean that his second term at the centre is nearly confirmed, though three major states – Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – will go to polls before the Lok Sabha elections scheduled exactly a year from now.
Of course, a year is a long time in politics, but will it be a cakewalk for Modi next year? On second thoughts, his position is not as strong as it would seem from a string of assembly victories. These victories – in Haryana, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, Tripura – can be seen as an anti-incumbency vote. True, Modi has expanded the BJP’s presence into those states where it was never in power. It shows the people of Assam and Tripura were tired of the same old Congress/CPM and wanted to give a chance to a seemingly action-oriented party. In Haryana, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, it was the usual revolving-door – though the historic mandate in the largest state of course stands out as credible performance.
That brings us to the losses: Delhi, Bihar, Punjab, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal (not to mention the states like Goa and Manipur where the party’s performance was poor though it managed to be in power with alliances). For a party that came to power at the centre with a stunning majority, wins are on par and these losses are noteworthy. Explanations may be different from state to state, but a pattern to them is that whenever a local force other than the long-term status-quoist party (mostly Congress but also CPM) challenges Modi, he does not seem as invincible as he otherwise does. That’s what happened in Delhi and Bihar, and that’s what didn’t happen in Gujarat and similar cases. Also where the regional parties are on a strong wicket, the BJP remains helpless.
Moreover, voting in the state elections and voting in the national elections are different. That is why the BJP has lost all but six of the 23 by-elections to the Lok Sabha since 2014, despite the victory march at the state level. It has lost all six this year (including in UP and Rajasthan) and all five last year. The last by-poll it won was in 2016, around the mid-way mark of the centre’s term.
That brings us to the two key states going to polls before the general elections. The BJP, it seems, is in a weak position in Rajasthan, and in MP it will face an uphill task fighting anti-incumbency. Party president Amit Shah has crafted a new strategy of fighting elections with micro-planning and use of data. He can be expected to make an all-out effort not to lose just before the general elections those two states where the BJP has a long history.
Yet, 2019 will not be a cakewalk. The final-year fatigue, faced by many popular governments in the past, is setting in. Economy woes are only adding to it. If Modi finally manages to win comfortably, at least half the credit will have to go the opposition.
News profession is organic in nature, requires responsibility and discipline, and there is no room for mistake. To maintain high standards of accuracy you need discipline and hygiene in the newsroom. Sudhir Chaudhary, editor in chief of Zee News, Zee Business and Wion, has said that a TRP-driven business m
When Dharmendra Pandey, a fruit-seller had to leave Mumbai after the imposition of the lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic, and return to his village in Uttar Pradesh, he was staring at economic uncertainties ahead. Little did he know that his 16-year-old son, Mahavir, had acquired skills that would come
Wearing a face mask is the first line of defence against the novel coronavirus, along with maintaining social distance and frequently washing hands with soap. More than six months after the outbreak of Covid-19, nearly 90 percent of people in India have become aware of the necessity of wearing a face mask,
Is India finally gaining an upper hand over the Covid-19 pandemic? After weeks of new cases hitting 90,000-plus every day, the tide seems to be turning, as the number came down to 75,083 on Tuesday, and the recoveries were not only higher than that but crossed the 1 lakh mark too. The countr
Sit Your Self Down A Novice’s Journey into the Heart of Vipassana By Gayatri Jayaraman Hachette India, 212 pages, Rs 399 As stress and strife increase in daily life, more and more people are turning to meditation as an all
On completion of one year of the chairmanship of the Association of World Election Bodies (A-WEB), the Election Commission (EC) of India on Monday hosted an international webinar on the theme of “Issues, Challenges and Protocols for Conducting Elections during COVID-19 : Sharing Country