If you thought it’s game, set and match for the Naveen Patnaik government in Odisha after cyclone Phailin left the Odisha coast, tamer than the 1999 ‘super cyclone’ but still leaving a big enough trail of destruction along with the subsequent flooding, you need to take fresh stance. For, the game might just have begun for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) ahead of the state assembly elections due next year.

While the Odisha government is, rightly, collecting kudos for its commendable evacuation effort and keeping the casualties at a minimum, chief minister Patnaik’s luck may just begin to turn for the worse if he fails to handle Phailin’s fallout.

What’s also at stake is Patnaik’s ability to return to power for a record fourth time. The stars seemed to be on his side as the intensity and force of Phailin weakened by landfall on the Odisha coast and the causalities were much less than expected. But it does not take long for the stars to change their position in the world of Indian politics.

On the issue of post-disaster relief work, one must not forget that the 1999 super cyclone had brought Patnaik to power largely due to the mishandling of relief and restoration work by the Girdhar Gomang-led Congress government.

There is little doubt that the government was adequately prepared for the disaster, and evacuation of affected areas was executed systematically. But revenue and disaster management minister Surya Narayan Patro’s boast to Governance Now – that the government was prepared for any kind of eventuality – might come back to haunt the state government. That is, unless the administration is able to do a better job of flood management in north Odisha in the wake of the storm.

Even 10 days after Phailin, the crisis in Balasore, Mayurbhanj and Bhadrak districts, where floodwaters from the swelling Subernarekha and Budha Balanga inundated large areas and thousands were at the mercy of the elements, was still that: a crisis. While preparing for the cyclonic winds in the southern and eastern coast, the government seemed totally unprepared to deal with the floods that followed: it wreaked havoc in the rice bowl of the state, causing 28 casualties, damaging property and standing crop worth crores of rupees.

Meteorological department authorities said they had issued express warning to the government about flooding in north Odisha due to heavy rains in the upper catchment areas after Phailin moved to Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, but the government was ostensibly unprepared for the disaster.

What lies ahead for the BJD government is a daunting task. The power infrastructure, particularly in south and coastal districts, has been hit badly. The challenges of rehabilitating thousands and restoring roads and power systems destroyed by Phailin are compounded with floods in four districts in north Odisha. Already, poor handling of relief operations and lack of preparedness is fuelling anger and anguish among the people.

First salvo fired

Congress MLA and leader of opposition Bhupinder Singh lost no time in landing the first shot. Within days, he blamed the state government for not anticipating the extent of the damage and failing to tackle the situation properly despite advance notice. He also pointed out that in 1999 the then Congress government in the state had depended on warning systems of the US Navy, which he claimed had failed to predict the intensity of the super cyclone.

The BJD government, Singh said, is repeating the mistake.

Stressing that the 1999 super cyclone had remained in force for 36 hours while Phailin had moved on by six hours, Singh said the Patnaik government has fallen short of requirements despite possessing all facilities to deal with the cyclone and advance warnings issued by IMD. The administration concentrated on Phailin but ignored the warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall, which caused massive flooding elsewhere.

Even as he claimed that this is “not the time to indulge in politics”, Singh “regretted” that despite getting all possible help, the state is resorting to its “timeworn tactic” of blaming the Centre.     

Experience of meeting tragedies falls short

Over the last 14 years since the super cyclone, the Patnaik government has gathered enough experience to handle natural calamities. It had, in fact, set up the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) soon after assuming charge to address situations like these.

As warnings of Phailin came this time, Patnaik asked the central government for assistance in deploying armed forces along the coast of Odisha to overcome infrastructure snags that would have occurred, and did occur, during the cyclone. According to observers, the state’s requisition for helicopters, positioning of sophisticated boats, NDRF personnel, among others, was carried out.

According to most observers, all this gave out the impression that the state government was fully prepared to meet the disaster. But the manner in which post-cyclone restoration work is taking place has created a different impression, they said.    

Though the magnitude of Phailin was less than half of the 1999 super cyclone, particularly in state capital Bhubaneswar, restoration of power supply was on at snail’s pace: it took more than 24 hours to provide power to even 20 to 30 percent areas of Bhubaneswar. Despite deployment of government administration, NDRF and private players, central electricity supply unit (CESU) could restore power only to VIP areas.

The challenge is a few notches higher in Patnaik’s home district, Ganjam, which was hit worst by Phailin: due to the magnitude of devastation, the power system has to be virtually built up from scratch.

Besides power, Berhampur, the most important town in Ganjam district, faced acute shortage of potable water for days. Earlier, trainloads of potable water came from neighbhouring Andhra Pradesh to mitigate the drinking water shortage in the area. And that decade-long problem has been compounded by devastation wrought by Phailin.

But the real test for BJD comes only now: success or lack of it in meeting the post-disaster crisis could well make or mar it for the suave CM.