The soaring Mercury of the sub-continental summers is crucial for Indo-Pak relations. As the winter ice melts near the border in the north, the Jehadi infiltrators from Pakistan get the opportunity sneak into Indian territory, very often with the blessings of the Pakistani army. Firing from both sides takes place. In one such firing, five Indian army personnel were killed by Pkaistani troops in Chakan-da-bagh sector of Poonch district in Jammu and Kashmir. All five soldiers belonged to the 21 Bihar regiment.

New Delhi had earlier claimed that Pakistani troops crossed the border and started firing indiscriminately late in the night on Monday. However, within hours, defence minister AK Antony issued a suo motu statement in the Lok Sabha clarifying, “The ambush was carried out by approximately 20 heavily-armed terrorists along with persons dressed in Pakistan army uniforms. Islamabad quickly washed its hands in the matter denying any involvement. The manner in which the incident has unfolded will leave its scar on the peace process between the neighbours. In fact, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister tweeted, “Incidents like this give the lie to Pakistan’s assertions of peace with India.”

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It is in this backdrop that the summer election (May 2013) of Nawaz Sharif as the prime minister of Pakistan was being watched with intense interest in India. India was keen to read the early signs that would emanate from the Sharif government to understand the rules of engagement. India’s interest peaked when Sharif talked of improving relations with it in his pre-poll speeches. Sharif, ousted in a military coup in October 1999, was coming back to power after 14 years and was promising to connect the dots of the peace process puzzle. Sharif has never been hawkish when it came to relations with India, unlike the Pakistani army. He had signed the Lahore declaration with Atal Bihari Vajapayee when the latter was the prime minister of India. So, this summer was a crucial test for him as the two countries were set to resume dialogue from September. Apart from secretary level talks, prime minister Manmohan Singh and Sharif were expected to meet at the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York in the last week of September.

So, how has he fared in the summer test? It has been three months since Sharif assumed charge. India had hoped that Sharif would be able to keep his country’s army hawks in check as the ice at the border melted. After all, he had insisted that the prime minister was the boss in Pakistan and not the army chief or the country’s notorious intel-organisation, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).

But Sharif’s report card suggests different. Defence minister Antony, in a statement to the Indian parliament, said that there have been 57 ceasefire violations by Pakistan this year — “which is almost 80 percent more than the violations last year.” In January, hostile exchanges at the border killed three Pakistani and two Indian soldiers.

The latest incursion in Poonch raises a simple question: Has Sharif been able to stamp his authority on two important pillars — the army and ISI? The answer is a predictable no. Despite Sharif’s posturing, it is widely-acknowledged that for any civilian government to survive in Islamabad, it is imperative to appease these two.

In 1999, when the then Pakistan army general Pervez Musharraf’s adventurism resulted in the Kargil war, Sharif had claimed that he had not been briefed about the army’s plans. Three months may not be time long enough to judge, but Sharif seems to be buckling instead of sticking to his stand of engaging peacefully with New Delhi. Will he now claim that he was “not briefed” about the Pakistani’s army’s proactive anti-India stand in Poonch? Either way, the answer would only be damning of Sharif.