By the end of this century, global sea levels may rise by more than 1 metre, and the mean sea level rise is expected to increase by 180 mm. Climate change is one of the gravest issues before us and one of the most pressing issues linked to the climate change is the sea level rise. The coastal communities are at a high risk of coastal hazards, with the sea level rising due to rising temperatures. The human activities that led to an increase in greenhouse gases have resulted in global warming, leading to the warming of oceans and the melting of land ice, ultimately contributing to the sea level rise. 

The increase in temperature leads to thermal expansion, a significant environmental effect. The other effects of the sea level rise include saltwater intrusion, land loss, coastal flooding, erosion, land subsidence, glacier melting, and regional-level fluctuations in sea level rise. Therefore, numerous biotic and abiotic factors have contributed to an increase in the sea level rise across various spatial scales. An increase in population is also one of the significant drawbacks that make urban areas vulnerable, ultimately leading to a decrease in the amount of vegetation. The coastal lines are home to around 28% of the global population, which includes 11% living on land less than 10 meters above sea level. 

Based on the studies conducted by experts, India is under the threat of sea level rise mainly coastal areas. A research study reveal that in Andhra Pradesh 23 villages with 6,000 households and 2.2 lakh people fall into the very high socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) category and four villages with a total of 3,000 individuals and 1,000 households are significantly under the high range of SEVI. Between 1874 and 2004, the North Indian Ocean (NIO) experienced sea level rise at a rate of 1.06 to 1.75 mm per year. This rate increased to 1.06 to 3.3 mm per year in the last two and a half decades (1993-2017). According to the RCP 4.5 Scenario, by the 21st century, NIO sea level can increase by 300 mm. Some studies also reveal that the Indian Ocean region is under a substantial threat that can lead to the displacement or migration of people. 

In India, migration can occur due to climate shocks and other factors that significantly influence migration decisions. One of the biggest obstacles to policy action is the lack of adaptation planning in terms of sea level rise. The Andhra Pradesh coastal areas are estimated to experience a rise in sea level of ~0.6 meters by 2100. This level would submerge 565 km² of land and cause an additional 1,233 km² to become intertidal, impacting 282 settlements and 1.29 million people. The coastal vulnerability index has shown that 35% of the 1030 km of AP coastline is in high-risk zone areas, and 43% of the regions are under very high-risk zone and 9,682 km² were at risk of flooding within 100 years due to storms and sea level rise. With up to 30% of the district area at risk, particularly in the delta and river mouth regions, the districts with the highest Coastal Multi-hazard Zone (CMZ) exposure were Krishna, East Godavari, and Nellore. 

Particularly in the districts of Nellore and Krishna, 23 coastal villages with around 6,000 households were categorized as having a very high SEVI; the low elevation and inadequate infrastructure in these locations make them even more vulnerable. As many as 1,985 buildings were classified as highly vulnerable at the building level due to their low adaptive ability, high population density and poor building types. To respond to this situation, the government has to plan climate change governance which utilizes institutions to address emerging issues in coastal areas. In Andhra Pradesh, residents of the coastal area communities usually below the poverty line, and problems like flooding lead to disruptions in their livelihoods. Andhra Pradesh's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, particularly rice production.

Crops grown in the coastal areas are also affected by the sea level and people also rely on fishing. These are among the significant risks that affect them constantly, making mitigation and adaptation necessary. Because of the multilevel problems that have emerged in this situation, as sea level rise poses issues such as affecting livelihoods, migration, melting ice, and warming oceans, institutionally, a lack of planning and policy is the primary concern.

The key areas focused in coastal zone management under the Andhra Pradesh State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) are ecosystem restoration, mitigation and adaptation, and livelihood resilience. The Andhra Pradesh Coastal Zone Management Authority (APCZMA) plays a vital role in implementing the Coastal Zone Regulation (CRZ) rules and regulations by encouraging sustainable coastal development. The National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), in collaboration with the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC), aids in mitigating climate risk challenges faced in coastal districts. This includes mangrove restoration, identifying, developing, and supporting aquaculture-based sustainable livelihoods, as well as demonstrating mangrove-based fishery livelihoods.

As outlined by Duit and Galaz (2008), these are all emerging issues and there are thresholds, cascading effects and surprises that can turn minor issues into significant and irreversible impacts. Therefore, this challenge cannot be solved with a single decentralized system; it needs adaptive and multilevel governance which includes balancing linking with the exploitation by using existing institutions effectively and exploration includes innovation and learning. 

From the perspective of the Andhra Pradesh Case study, using a robust adaptive governance system can facilitate and promote the feedback loops, experimentation, and multilevel actor collaboration. This multilevel governance involves the institutions of local government, Panchayati Raj institutions, and municipalities, with the state government and the central government compiling an adaptive strategy that is significant in addressing the nonlinear, cascading effects of sea level rise in the coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh and other areas of India.
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Jarupula Gunavardhini is with the centre for public policy, Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore. Banavath Harshavardhan is with the Tata Institute of social Sciences, school of public policy governance, Hyderabad.

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