The Congress appears far from upbeat about its prospects in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, which may well be preponed by six months to November this year. An internal assessment by the party says that a Narendra Modi-led BJP may win as many as 160-180 seats in the general elections. Highly-placed party sources said in-house surveys indicated that with the Gujarat chief minister at the helm, the BJP was poised to do better than the Congress. The ruling party’s tally could drop to 140-160.

The Congress has held internal discussions on the possibility of holding general elections in November this year, along with the state assembly polls. While the main rationale for early elections is the difficulty in managing a lame duck government, the UPA also does not want to give Modi time to consolidate his hold over the party. Besides, holding simultaneous state and Lok Sabha polls is likely to work in favour of the Congress as the MPs and MLAs would have to pull together and make a united effort.

Although its seat tally may drop, the Congress believes that the projection of Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate will work to its advantage. Polarisation of the minority vote would help the “secular” parties, which would not contemplate a post-poll alliance with the NDA. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, the minorities are expected to vote for the party most likely to defeat the BJP, whether it is the SP or the BSP. Either or both could then support, or take the support of, the Congress.

The Congress is pinning its hopes on Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar pulling out of the NDA before the Parliament elections, as he had threatened to do if Modi was projected as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. Regarding the assembly elections, the Congress expects to do well in Karnataka and Chhattisgarh. It not only hopes to wrest the states from the BJP but improve its Lok Sabha tally.

The ruling party had expected to create a feel good factor among the middle classes through an economic revival and among the rural poor through welfare schemes along the lines of MNREGA, but neither has materialised. With India’s trade deficit likely to hit $196 billion this year (according to commerce minister Anand Sharma), a quick fix for the economy seems unlikely.

While the food security bill has been cleared by the union cabinet under pressure from Congress president Sonia Gandhi, agriculture minister Sharad Pawar is by no means the only cabinet member strongly opposed to the bill. According to one estimate by a government agency under the ministry of agriculture, the bill would inflate the food subsidy to Rs 2.41 lakh crore.