The arena for the first skirmish between Congress and the BJP in the run-up to 2014 general elections, the politically volatile Karnataka is the only state where the ruling party expects to improve its tally. And it should thank a badly fractured opposition for that.

An internal Congress survey, reportedly conducted by Nielsen, sees the Congress improving its tally and the BJP's seat-share being halved. The survey projects the Congress to end up with 110-120 in the 224-member assembly, party sources said, adding that this is corroborated by other internal surveys.

Interestingly, former chief minister BS Yeddyuruppa, who formed Karnataka Janatha Paksha (KJP) after leaving the BJP, appears set to get 15-20 seats, rivallng the JD(S), which is pegged at 20-25. The BJP will find itself reduced to 50-60 seats, according to the survey.

In terms of leadership, the survey reportedly found that leader of opposition in the assembly, former deputy chief minister Siddaramaiah, is the most acceptable pan-Karnataka face of the Congress — more than even former chief minister and ex-union external affairs minister SM Krishna.

While Siddaramaiah comes from a Janata Party background and Krishna is a strong contender for the post of state Congress chief, the latter's age goes against him at a time when the party is looking to induct younger faces.

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has apparently ruled out any truck with HD Deve Gowda's Janata Dal(S), on the grounds that it would be detrimental to the party in the long run. However, a post-poll alliance, sources indicated, is a possibility if the Congress tally dips below 100 seats. The JD(S) has a strong support base among the Vokkaliga community and is attempting to make inroads in north Karnatka.

The party has been accused by Yeddyurappa of having an informal tie-up with the BJP.

But before the heat of the assembly elections, the urban local bodies elections later this week will be a trial of strength for all four players in the state. For chief minister Jagadish Shettar, it is a prestige issue and an opportunity to show that Yeddyurappa’s departure from the BJP has not weakened the party beyond repair.

With the KJP focussing on the Mysore area, the results there are being closely watched.

Congress leaders acknowledge that Yeddyurappa is without doubt the tallest Lingayat leader in the state and will certainly affect the outcome of the polls.